PXTA月报：供需基本维持平衡，TA中长期适宜作为空配-20250804

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA (TA509), it is in a stage of oscillating downward, and the later price center is expected to decline. The supply - side second - quarter centralized maintenance has ended, downstream polyester is weakening in the off - season, and factors such as tariffs may affect medium - and long - term terminal consumer exports. In the third quarter, the overall supply - demand pattern is weak, and PTA should be short - positioned in the medium - and long - term [1]. - For p - xylene (PX509), it is also in a stage of oscillating downward, and the later price center is expected to decline. After the third - quarter centralized maintenance ends, the supply - side load recovers, downstream polyester starts to weaken in the off - season, and factors like tariffs may affect medium - and long - term terminal consumer exports. The subsequent price center is likely to weaken, and it can be short - tested in the third quarter [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Overview and Strategy - Supply: PX and PTA device maintenance plans are few in the third quarter. PE and PTA loads are at a moderately high level, and new devices are put into production smoothly. Supply will be sufficient in the second half of the year [12]. - Demand: Polyester starts at around 88% recently, with inventory at a moderately high level after restocking, but profit is weak. Terminal data is average, and the demand in the peak season this year may not be too optimistic [12]. - Spot: PTA spot basis is weak, with the spot premium over the 09 - contract at about 0 yuan/ton [12]. - Valuation: Recent valuation changes are small, currently oscillating around 200 US dollars/ton in 2018, and the spot processing fee is about 200 yuan/ton. The industrial chain valuation is neutral, and whether it can be maintained depends on the polyester's start - up rate on the demand side [12]. - Unilateral Strategy: Against the background of relatively cheap crude oil on the cost side, PTA is considered bearish in the medium - and long - term. Near the peak season, the peak - season expectation may bring a rebound. In the short - term, it may oscillate strongly, but in the medium - and long - term, it should be treated bearishly, and it is suitable to hold PTA as a short - position in energy - chemical or commodity portfolios [12]. 3.2 Market Review: July Market Trends - PTA prices oscillated in July, with the price center slightly rising following the cost - side crude oil. From the supply - demand perspective, there were no significant highlights in July, with weak off - season demand and compressed overall valuation. Affected by strong commodity macro - sentiment and rising crude oil prices, it showed an oscillating upward trend with small self - fluctuations [18]. 3.3 PX Fundamental Analysis - Device Changes: The Xianglongdao project had no progress in the first half of the year. Recently, the device is in line with expectations, and the PX load has been rising in the third quarter, returning to the normal level range of previous years. The market trading focus has shifted to the impact of domestic macro - policies on commodities, and the supply - demand may be balanced in the third quarter [28]. - Profit: The PX processing fee is around 260 US dollars/ton recently, remaining at a high level this year. If the supply - demand remains balanced, PXN may oscillate in this range, and attention should be paid to whether demand can effectively support it [43]. 3.4 PTA Fundamental Analysis - Start - up Rate: The effective start - up rate is 80%. Recently, multiple devices have been overhauled as planned, and the PTA load is at a normal level. There are few overhaul plans in the third quarter, and the impact of new device production on this year's supply - demand pattern may be limited [61]. - Profit: The spot processing fee is around 200 yuan/ton, which is currently in a neutral position. As supply recovers, the basis weakens, and the spot processing fee is compressed [62]. 3.5 Polyester Fundamental Analysis - Start - up: Polyester starts at 88%. Due to inventory pressure in the off - season, polyester factories have cut production. As the off - season ends, attention should be paid to the inventory performance before the Peak Season. Whether the demand can return to a high load in the peak season may be the core factor for the industrial chain's valuation [69]. - Profit: The profit of polyester bottle chips has been at the bottom of the historical level, resulting in low start - up rates and possible post - ponement of new device production. Most polyester varieties have poor profits due to strong raw material prices [72]. - Inventory: After terminal restocking, the polyester burden has been digested to some extent. Currently, terminal demand confidence is insufficient, and short - term production and sales are difficult to maintain. Polyester is likely to accumulate inventory, and attention should be paid to inventory changes, which will greatly affect the expectation of peak - season load [87]. 3.6 Terminal Weaving Fundamental Analysis - Start - up: The weaving start - up rate is 58%. The terminal situation is average in terms of order index, start - up, and inventory data. Domestic macro - policies have led to strong raw material prices, which may further compress terminal demand expectations. Although the peak season is approaching, the overall situation may not be very optimistic [93]. - Export: The export data of clothing and textile products shows certain fluctuations, and the trade situation is affected by various factors such as tariffs [102][110]. 3.7 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - PX: The supply - demand is basically balanced in the third quarter, with production, import, and consumption showing certain trends and year - on - year changes [121]. - PTA: The supply - demand situation is also analyzed in the balance sheet, including production, import, consumption, and inventory changes, etc. Production is estimated based on device overhauls and new device commissions, and import and export are inferred according to trade contracts and price differences [121]. 3.8 Basis and Spread Analysis - PX: The basis and spread of the PX09 contract show certain trends, which can provide arbitrage opportunities and reflect market supply - demand and price relationships [125]. - PTA: The basis and spread of PTA contracts (such as TA01, TA09, etc.) also show different trends, having an impact on trading strategies and market expectations [126][135]. 3.9 Position and Trading Volume Analysis - PX: The position and trading volume of the PX09 contract show certain changes, which can reflect market participation and trading sentiment [140]. - PTA: The position and trading volume of the PTA09 contract also show corresponding trends, affecting price fluctuations and market supply - demand relationships [140].