本周热点前瞻2025-08-04

Report Core View - The report provides a forward - looking analysis of key events and data releases in the coming week, including economic data from China, the US, and the eurozone, as well as policy - related events, and analyzes their potential impact on the futures market [2][3][4] Key Events and Data Forecasts August 4th - The National Bureau of Statistics will announce the market prices of important production materials in the circulation field in late July, covering 9 categories and 50 products [3] - The economic research institution Sentix will announce the eurozone's August Sentix investor confidence index, with an expected value of 8% and a previous value of 4.5% [4] - The US Department of Commerce will announce the June factory orders, with an expected monthly rate of - 5% and a previous value of 8.2% [5] August 5th - Caixin Bank and the UK's Markit will announce China's July SPGI services PMI (expected 50.0, previous 50.6) and SPGI composite PMI (expected 50.6, previous 51.3) [6] - The US Bureau of Economic Analysis will announce the June trade balance, with an expected value of - $72.6 billion and a previous value of - $71.5 billion [8] - The US ISM will announce the US July ISM non - manufacturing PMI, with an expected value of 51.4 and a previous value of 50.8. A higher value than the previous one will suppress the price increase of gold and silver futures [9] August 6th - The EU Statistics Bureau will announce the eurozone's June retail sales. The expected monthly rate is 0.3% (previous - 0.7%), and the expected annual rate is 1.9% (previous 1.8%). A slightly higher monthly rate than the previous one will slightly help the price increase of related commodity futures [10] - The US EIA will announce the EIA crude oil inventory change for the week ending August 1st. A continued decline will help the price increase of crude oil and related commodity futures [11] August 7th - The People's Bank of China will announce China's July foreign exchange reserves (expected $3.33 trillion, previous $3.317422 trillion) and gold reserves (expected 73.98 million ounces, previous 73.9 million ounces) [12] - The Bank of England will announce the interest rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report. The expected central bank benchmark interest rate in August is 4.00%, with a previous value of 4.25% [13] - The US Department of Labor will announce the initial jobless claims for the week ending August 2nd, with an expected value of 220,000 and a previous value of 218,000. A slightly higher value than the previous one will slightly help the price increase of gold and silver futures and slightly suppress the price increase of other industrial product futures except gold and silver [14] - The US "reciprocal tariff" new tax rates on multiple countries will take effect, with tax rates ranging from 10% to 41% [15][16] August 8th - The People's Bank of China will announce China's July financial statistics, including M2 (expected year - on - year growth of 8.27%, previous 8.30%), new RMB loans (expected 350 billion yuan, previous 2.24 trillion yuan), and social financing scale incremental (expected 1.45 trillion yuan, previous 4.1993 trillion yuan). Higher values than the previous ones will help the price increase of commodity futures, stock index futures, and treasury bond futures [17] - Starting from August 8th, 2025, the interest income of newly issued treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to VAT [18] - The 2025 World Robot Conference will be held from August 8th to 12th [19] - Fed Governor Adriana Kugler will officially resign [20] August 9th - The National Bureau of Statistics will announce China's July CPI (expected year - on - year decline of 0.2%, previous year - on - year growth of 0.1%) and PPI (expected year - on - year decline of 3.3%, previous year - on - year decline of 3.6%). A slightly lower CPI year - on - year increase than the previous one will slightly suppress the price increase of commodity futures, slightly help the price increase of treasury bond futures, and slightly suppress the price increase of stock index futures. A slightly lower PPI year - on - year decline than the previous one will slightly help the price increase of industrial product futures [21]