美联储7月会议解读：美联储内部分歧加大，保留年内降息可能

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's July meeting maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% for the fifth consecutive time, in line with market expectations. The Fed's view on economic growth has become more cautious, and concerns about future uncertainties have increased. There are significant internal differences within the Fed, but Powell is still very cautious about rate cuts, which require more reasons such as a further slowdown in the labor market [3][6][16]. - After the release of the Fed's decision, the price fluctuations of major asset classes were relatively small. The Fed has not been the core factor in market trading recently. The Fed's hawkish signals have led to a decline in market rate - cut expectations, a significant rebound in the US dollar index, a notable decline in precious metals, and a slight decline in US stocks [7][9]. - Although the US economic outlook has weakened, the economy remains resilient, especially the labor market. The possibility of a rate cut this year still exists, but more reasons are needed [10][16]. - Different asset classes have different outlooks. US stocks are expected to continue the upward trend but with accumulating risks; the decline of long - term US Treasury yields is restricted; precious metals are in adjustment and need new driving factors; commodities are supported by trade and economic factors; the US dollar may be in a long - term downward cycle; and A - shares are expected to have long - term upward potential [17][18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 July Fed Meeting Highlights - The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25% - 4.50%, with two Fed governors opposing the decision and advocating a 25 - basis - point rate cut. The Fed's view on the economy has become more cautious, and internal differences have increased. Powell needs to balance the differences among core members and the pressure from Trump. The Fed has not yet cut rates, but a policy inflection point may come if the economy cools or political pressure intensifies [3]. - The meeting did not provide economic forecasts or the dot - plot. Powell said that the overall impact of tariffs on the economy and inflation remains to be seen, and the Fed has not made a decision on September's monetary policy, which depends on employment and inflation data [4]. - The meeting continued the "wait - and - see" tone, did not give clear guidance on the rate - cut timing, and still faced the problem of balancing employment and inflation risks. Powell's speech sent a more hawkish signal to cool market rate - cut expectations [6]. 3.2 Price Movements of Major Asset Classes - After the Fed's decision, the price fluctuations of major asset classes were small. US stocks declined slightly, with the S&P 500 down 0.37%, the Dow Jones down 0.74%, and the Nasdaq down 0.03%. US Treasury yields rose, with the 10 - year yield up 5.16 basis points and the 2 - year yield up 6.56 basis points. The US dollar index rose about 0.9%. WTI crude oil futures fell 1.06%, and precious metals such as gold and platinum declined significantly [7][8][9]. 3.3 Outlook for the US Economy and Fed Monetary Policy - In July, the global trade situation eased, and the US economy remained strong with rising inflation data and increased global risk appetite. The US labor market was robust in June, with better - than - expected non - farm payrolls and a lower - than - expected unemployment rate. The CPI began to rebound under the influence of tariffs [10][11]. - Although the US economic outlook has weakened, the economy remains resilient, especially the labor market. The Fed is under pressure to cut rates, but Powell is cautious, and a rate cut requires more reasons, especially a slowdown in the labor market [16]. 3.4 Views on Subsequent Asset Movements - US stocks are expected to continue rising due to factors such as trade easing, positive fiscal policies, and the prosperity of emerging industries, but risks are accumulating [17]. - The yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds has remained around 4.4% since the second quarter. The decline of long - term yields is restricted by the potential rise in long - term inflation [17]. - Precious metals' safe - haven and allocation values are strengthened by "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization," but they are in adjustment and need new driving factors. Silver is expected to follow gold's fluctuations [17]. - Commodities are supported by trade easing and the US economic resilience. A potential Fed rate cut and China's "anti - involution" policy may also provide upward momentum [17][18]. - The US dollar index rebounded significantly in July but may be in a long - term downward cycle. The RMB exchange rate has limited depreciation pressure and may enter an appreciation channel [18]. - A - shares are expected to have long - term upward potential. Although the current economic recovery momentum is not strong, there is room for valuation repair and an expected increase in corporate profits [18].