国债周报：政治局会议落地，债期企稳-20250804

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the recent decline in bond futures provides a good entry opportunity. The current stabilization of the bond market is supported by three factors: positive signals from monetary policy, a stable capital market with reduced capital rotation between stocks and bonds, and the attractiveness of bond yields for institutional investment [8]. - In the long - term, insufficient effective demand is the main challenge for China's economic development. With the potential impact of trade frictions in the Trump 2.0 era, deflation is likely to continue. Monetary and fiscal policies are expected to work together, and the logic of a bond bull market may persist [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views - Market sentiment was affected by the "anti - involution" concept and expectations of the Politburo meeting. However, the meeting did not fully meet market expectations. It emphasized expanding consumption, promoting "two - heavy" construction, urban renewal, market competition order, debt resolution, and capital market development [4]. - The table shows the closing prices, weekly price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes of various bond futures contracts such as TL2509, TL2512, etc. [5] 3.2 Liquidity Tracking - The report presents data on open - market operations (both in terms of quantity and price), including currency投放, currency回笼, and net currency投放. It also shows data on the Medium - term Lending Facility (MLF) in terms of quantity and price [10][15]. - Information on various interest rates is provided, such as the reverse repurchase rate, deposit - based pledged repurchase rate, SHIBOR, and the weighted average interest rate of bond - based pledged repurchase. Additionally, data on the trading volume ratio of R001 to R007, inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance rate, and excess reserve ratio are presented [14][19][23]. - Data on loan prime rates (LPR), deposit reserve ratios, and the relationship between policy rates and market rates are also included. Moreover, information on bond yields and term spreads of Chinese and US bonds is provided [27][31][33]. 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures Arbitrage Indicator Tracking - The report shows the basis, net basis, implied repo rate (IRR), and implied interest rate of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures [41][50][58][64].