有色金属周报：下游淡季特征明显，有色板块回调-20250804

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the given text. 2. Core View of the Report - The downstream off - season characteristics are obvious, and the non - ferrous metals sector has corrected. The prices of various non - ferrous metals show different trends, and each metal has its own influencing factors and market conditions [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Non - Ferrous Metal Price Monitoring - The report monitors the closing prices of various non - ferrous metals, including the US dollar index, exchange rate CNH, and prices of industrial silicon, copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. Different metals have different daily, weekly, and annual price changes. For example, the US dollar index is 98.7, with a daily decline of 1.36%, a weekly increase of 1.04%, and an annual decline of 9.03%; industrial silicon is 8500 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 2.97%, a weekly decline of 12.60%, and an annual decline of 22.62% [6]. 3.2 Copper (CU) - Macro Factors: Bearish. The overall content of the Politburo meeting is less than the market's optimistic expectations; the result of the Sino - US economic and trade talks is in line with expectations, but the US side's statement is hawkish; China's July manufacturing PMI has unexpectedly declined; the Fed's statement is hawkish, suppressing the expectation of a September interest rate cut; the US July non - farm data is lower than expected, and the ISM manufacturing PMI has unexpectedly declined; the US has imposed a 50% tariff on semi - finished copper [8]. - Raw Material End: Slightly bullish. The spot processing fee of copper ore has increased slightly, and the port inventory of domestic copper ore has decreased [8]. - Smelting End: Slightly bearish. The loss of smelters using spot copper ore has narrowed, and the profit of smelters using long - term contract copper ore has increased. China's copper smelter production in July has further increased [8]. - Demand End: Neutral. The downstream demand has improved slightly, but the off - season characteristics are obvious [8]. - Inventory: Slightly bearish. The copper inventories at home and abroad have increased simultaneously [8]. - Investment View: Bearish. The market is worried about the US economic recession, and the downstream demand is in the off - season, so the copper price is expected to remain weak [8]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: May be under pressure to decline in the short term; Arbitrage: None [8]. 3.3 Zinc (ZN) - Macro Factors: Bearish. The Sino - US tariff suspension will be extended for 90 days; the US June core PCE price index has increased significantly; China's July official manufacturing PMI has declined; Trump has imposed a 50% tariff on semi - finished copper; the Fed has kept interest rates unchanged, but two voting members support a rate cut [88]. - Raw Material End: Neutral. The domestic processing fee remains the same as last week, and the import processing fee index has been slightly increased. The smelters have a strong willingness to raise the processing fee [88]. - Smelting End: Bearish. The zinc ingot production in July reached a new high in the past five years, and the production in August is expected to increase [88]. - Demand End: Neutral. The terminal project construction is affected by natural disasters, but the galvanizing sector is affected by positive news. There is a rumor that galvanizing manufacturers around Beijing will stop production during the September military parade, which needs further attention [88]. - Inventory: Neutral. The social inventory has continued to increase, and it may continue to increase before the terminal demand enters the peak season [88]. - Investment View: Bearish. The zinc fundamentals are under strong pressure, and the zinc price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [88]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Wait and see; Arbitrage: Long copper and short zinc [88]. 3.4 Nickel - Stainless Steel (NI·SS) - Macro Factors: Bearish. The US July non - farm data has unexpectedly declined, and the previous two months' data has been significantly revised down; the US manufacturing PMI is weaker than expected; the Sino - US trade negotiation is slightly less than expected [200][202]. - Raw Material End: Neutral. The premium of Indonesian domestic trade pyrometallurgical nickel ore is stable, and the benchmark price is rising. The demand for nickel ore procurement has weakened, and the domestic port inventory has increased seasonally [200][202]. - Smelting End: Slightly bearish. The pure nickel production remains high; some Indonesian nickel - iron plants have reduced production due to cost inversion, but the demand has also weakened; the MHP coefficient is stable, and the procurement demand for nickel sulfate may increase [200]. - Demand End: Neutral. The stainless steel price has corrected, the steel mill profit has been repaired, and the production reduction may be less than expected. The stainless steel social inventory has decreased slightly, and the overseas demand is still restricted. The new energy production and sales remain high, and the precursor enterprises' raw material inventory is relatively sufficient [200]. - Inventory: Slightly bearish. The overall inventory has increased. As of Friday, the LME nickel inventory is 20.9 tons, an increase of 2.53%; the SHFE nickel inventory is 2.57 tons, an increase of 1.17% [200]. - Investment View: Weakly volatile. The macro - sentiment has cooled down, and the nickel price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with increased volatility. In the long term, there is still pressure of over - supply of primary nickel [200]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Maintain the idea of shorting on rallies in the short term; Arbitrage: Wait and see [200].