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周观点0803:反内卷持续发酵,CSP大厂引领AIDC反弹-20250804
Changjiang Securities·2025-08-04 05:43

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the ongoing "anti-involution" trend in the photovoltaic industry, which is expected to drive price increases and improve profitability across the supply chain [16][36] - The energy storage sector is experiencing sustained demand growth, with significant project developments and favorable policy support [39][44] - The lithium battery segment shows stable demand, with advancements in solid-state technology and materials innovation [39][44] - The wind power sector is benefiting from increased offshore project activity and recovery in profitability [39][44] - The power equipment sector is seeing positive developments from high-voltage projects and international demand [39][44] - New directions in AI and robotics are highlighted as emerging investment opportunities, particularly in the context of increased capital expenditure from major manufacturers [39][44] Summary by Sections Photovoltaic - The photovoltaic industry is witnessing a price increase in key materials, with polysilicon prices rising to 49-55 CNY/kg and silicon wafer prices increasing by approximately 0.1 CNY per piece [22][25] - The government is pushing for the elimination of low-price competition and the orderly exit of outdated production capacity, with mergers and acquisitions in the polysilicon sector expected to progress in Q3 [16][36] - Recommended stocks include Tongwei Co., GCL-Poly, LONGi Green Energy, and Aiko Solar [16][36] Energy Storage - In H1 2025, major energy storage projects across 21 regions reached a total capacity of 124 GWh, with significant contributions from Inner Mongolia, Shandong, and Guangdong [41][42] - The report highlights the increasing stability of the energy storage market, with a positive outlook for domestic demand and pricing [39][44] - Recommended stocks include Sungrow Power Supply and Deye Technology [39][44] Lithium Batteries - The lithium battery sector is characterized by stable demand and a focus on solid-state battery technology, with companies like CATL and other second-tier players expected to benefit [39][44] - The report notes the importance of material innovations such as lithium metal anodes and nickel-iron current collectors [39][44] - Recommended stocks include CATL, Xiamen Tungsten, and Putailai [39][44] Wind Power - The offshore wind sector is accelerating project construction, with expectations for increased profitability in the second half of the year [39][44] - Recommended stocks include Mingyang Smart Energy and Zhongji Lingnan [39][44] Power Equipment - The report indicates that high-voltage projects have been approved, with overseas demand expected to rise [39][44] - Recommended stocks include Pinggao Electric and XJ Electric [39][44] New Directions - The report highlights advancements in humanoid robotics and AI applications, with significant capital expenditure from major companies [39][44] - Recommended stocks include Sanhua Intelligent Controls and Zhejiang Rongtai [39][44]