Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In July, the prices of iron ore, rebar, and hot-rolled coils in the black metal futures market showed a trend of rising first and then falling. The market is currently in a policy vacuum period, and the weak reality dominates. Iron ore is in a rebalancing stage of "expected supply increase + collapsing demand reality", rebar has entered the initial stage of negative feedback from "demand collapse" to "passive inventory accumulation", and hot-rolled coils have a stronger fundamentals than building materials, but downstream sentiment is cautious [1][5][6]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Iron Ore: In July, the futures price of iron ore first rose and then fell. The main 2509 contract of iron ore closed at 779.0 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 63.5 yuan/ton and a growth rate of 8.87%. Overseas macroscopically, the number of non-farm payrolls in the US in July increased by 73,000, the lowest in 9 months; the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending July 26 was 218,000, lower than expected. China and the US held the third round of economic and trade talks in Sweden and reached an important consensus to suspend the tariff extension for 90 days [1][12]. - Rebar: In July, the futures price of rebar first rose and then fell. The main 2510 contract of rebar closed at 3,205 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 208 yuan/ton and a growth rate of 6.94%. Domestically, an important meeting at the end of the month set the tone for the economic work in the second half of the year, and macro policies continued to exert force and increase strength in a timely manner. The GDP rankings of 31 provinces in the first half of the year were released. The National Development and Reform Commission stated that it would regulate the disorderly competition of enterprises and carry out a solid campaign to clean up and rectify market access barriers [1][12]. - Hot-Rolled Coils: In July, the futures price of hot-rolled coils first rose and then fell. The main 2510 contract of hot-rolled coils closed at 3,390 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 267 yuan/ton and a growth rate of 8.55%. Industrially, the manufacturing PMI in China in July was 49.3%, and the overall output of the economy maintained an expansion. The profit of the steel industry in the first half of the year increased by 13.7 times [1][12]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - Iron Ore - Supply: The global iron ore shipment volume continued to rise to 3,200.9 tons, a week-on-week increase of 92 tons, and a cumulative year-on-year increase of 382 tons this year; the arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports continued to decline to 2,319.7 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 192 tons [2][16]. - Demand: The daily average molten iron output of 247 sample steel mills continued to decrease. The daily average molten iron output was 240.71 tons/day, a decrease of 1.5 tons/day compared with last week, an increase of 1.98 tons/day compared with the beginning of the year, and an increase of 4.09 tons/day year-on-year [2][16]. - Inventory: The total inventory of iron ore at 47 ports in China decreased by 174 tons week-on-week, 1,388 tons less than at the beginning of the year, and 1,412 tons lower than the inventory of the same period last year. It is predicted that the port inventory may decrease slightly next period [2][17]. - Rebar - Supply: The supply of five major steel products this week was 867.42 tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.45 tons and an increase rate of 0.1%. Except for hot-rolled and cold-rolled products, the output decreased week-on-week, mainly due to short-term maintenance of individual steel mills and molten iron transfer. The total inventory was 1,351.89 tons, a week-on-week increase of 15.39 tons and an increase rate of 1.15% [2][22]. - Demand: The weekly consumption of the five major products this week was 852.03 tons, a decrease of 1.9%; among them, the consumption of building materials decreased by 7.1% week-on-week, and the consumption of plates increased by 4.2% week-on-week, reflecting the seasonal impact of the off-season [2][22]. - Hot-Rolled Coils - Supply: Among 37 hot-rolled coil production enterprises with a total of 64 production lines, 52 were actually in operation, with an overall operating rate of 81.25%, a week-on-week increase of 1.56%; the capacity utilization rate of steel mills this week was 82.47%, a week-on-week increase of 1.35%; there was no new blast furnace or production line maintenance; the average daily output affected by unsaturated production was 7.20 tons, unchanged week-on-week; the actual output of steel mills this week was 322.79 tons, a week-on-week increase of 5.30 tons [3][26]. - Demand: The in-plant inventory of steel mills was 79.30 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.30 tons. The total volume of specific hot-rolled commercial coils was about 210.84 tons, a week-on-week increase of 5.31 tons; the total volume of internal supply materials was about 111.95 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.01 tons [26]. - Arbitrage Opportunities: The spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar (HC - RB) has expanded to about 200 yuan/ton. It is recommended to intervene to narrow the spread by shorting hot-rolled coils and going long on rebar, with a target of 50 - 100 yuan/ton [6][29][32]. 3. Market Outlook - Iron Ore: In July, the iron ore price showed a significant rebound and then declined at the end of the month. Fundamentally, there is a coexistence of rising shipments and falling arrivals on the supply side, and there is great pressure on future arrivals; on the demand side, the molten iron output is at a high level and shows signs of decline, and the drag from the terminal is becoming more obvious; on the inventory side, there is a divergence between the inventory accumulation of the five major steel products at the terminal and the de - stocking at the port, and the subsequent demand pressure may be transmitted to the middle and upper reaches. It is recommended that spot enterprises lock in profits at high prices; for short - term trading, if the price rebounds above 800 yuan, short - sell at high prices and set a stop - loss at 810 yuan; since there are no major meetings in August and the industrial pricing power is recovering, it is recommended to arrange medium - and long - term positions after September, and pay attention to the inflection point of port inventory accumulation and the signal of production reduction when the molten iron output falls below 2.4 million tons [5][31]. - Rebar: In July, the rebar price showed a significant rebound. At the end of the month, the fundamentals deteriorated, with an increase in supply, a decrease in demand, and inventory accumulation of the five major steel products, indicating the pressure of off - season demand. The steel market has entered the initial stage of negative feedback from "demand collapse" to "passive inventory accumulation". It is recommended to continue to focus on short - term "short - selling on rebounds" for the rebar 2510 contract, and pay attention to the news of environmental protection restrictions in the north and the implementation of capacity policies for medium - and long - term trading [5][31][32]. - Hot - Rolled Coils: In July, the hot - rolled coil price showed a significant rebound. Fundamentally, the fundamentals of plates are stronger than those of building materials. This week, the in - plant inventory of hot - rolled coils increased slightly, mainly concentrated in the East China region. The downstream is in a wait - and - see mood, and orders have decreased compared with last week, with both production and inventory increasing. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to repair the spread between building materials and plates. Since the spread (HC - RB) has expanded to about 200 yuan/ton, short hot - rolled coils and go long on rebar, with a target of 50 - 100 yuan/ton [6][32].
黑色：政策真空，期下弱现实主导市场
Guo Du Qi Huo·2025-08-04 05:49