Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the log industry is "Oscillating" [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The log market is expected to oscillate between 800 - 840 yuan/m³ due to rising foreign quotes and improving domestic demand [4] - Last week, the log futures oscillated between 820 - 840 yuan/m³. The ebbing commodity sentiment and delivery cost based on import prices formed the upper pressure, while the rising August foreign quotes and declining domestic port inventories provided some positive support [7] Group 3: Summary by Directory Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - Supply: In June 2025, China's total coniferous log imports were about 2.1768 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63% and a year - on - year increase of 15.73%. From January to June 2025, the total imports were about 12.3364 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.97% [4] - Demand: From July 21st to July 27th, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 64,100 cubic meters, a 2.72% increase from the previous week. Shandong ports had an average daily outbound volume of 33,900 cubic meters, a 0.89% increase, and Jiangsu ports had 24,600 cubic meters, a 6.03% increase [4] - Inventory: As of July 25th, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 3.17 million cubic meters, a 120,000 - cubic - meter decrease from the previous week and a 3.65% week - on - week decrease. The radiata pine inventory was 2.57 million cubic meters, a 70,000 - cubic - meter decrease and a 2.65% week - on - week decrease [4] - Trade Profit: After the increase in foreign quotes, the profit inversion of traders intensified. As of August 1st, 2025, the trader's profit was - 57 yuan/m³, a slight week - on - week decline [4] - Valuation: The spot price of 5.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine was 770 - 780 yuan/m³, equivalent to 780 - 790 yuan/m³ on the futures market, with the futures price at a premium [4] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading strategy is not provided. The arbitrage strategy is to register spot goods for warehouse receipt delivery. Attention should be paid to domestic demand [4] Part Two: Review of Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: Last week, log futures oscillated between 820 - 840 yuan/m³. The ebbing commodity sentiment and delivery cost based on import prices formed the upper pressure, while the rising August foreign quotes and declining domestic port inventories provided some positive support [7] - Futures Position: As of August 1st, 2025, the total position of log futures contracts was 27,218 lots, a 13.5% decrease from the previous week. The position of the main contract 2509 was 19,584 lots, a 19.6% decrease [12] - Spot Market: As of August 1st, 2025, the spot prices of radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu showed slight increases. In Shandong, the prices of 3.9 - meter small/medium/large - grade A were 720/740/860 yuan/m³, and 5.9 - meter small/medium/large - grade A were 730/770/930 yuan/m³. In Jiangsu, the prices of 3.9 - meter small/medium/large - grade A were 720/770/820 yuan/m³, and 5.9 - meter small/medium/large - grade A were 730/780/860 yuan/m³ [16] Part Three: Fundamental Data of Log Supply and Demand - Import Volume: In June 2025, China's total coniferous log imports were about 2.1768 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63% and a year - on - year increase of 15.73%. From January to June 2025, the total imports were about 12.3364 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.97%. In June 2025, imports from New Zealand were about 1.6735 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 2.16% and a year - on - year increase of 37.37%. From January to June 2025, imports from New Zealand were about 9.2485 million cubic meters, a 0.91% year - on - year increase. In June 2025, radiata pine imports were about 1.6068 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 4.98% and a year - on - year increase of 34.07%. From January to June 2025, radiata pine imports were about 9.0189 million cubic meters, a 0.55% year - on - year decrease [20] - Shipping Volume: As of July 27th, there were 40 ships departing from New Zealand in July, with 35 going to the Chinese mainland and 5 going to Taiwan, China and South Korea for partial unloading. Among them, 16 ships were expected to arrive in July and 24 in August, with an expected arrival volume of 1.63 million cubic meters in July [23] - Trade Profit: As of July 2025, the CFR quote for radiata pine was 113 - 115 US dollars/JASm³, equivalent to 795 - 805 yuan/m³ in RMB, and the import profit was about - 57 yuan/m³. In July 2025, the AWG price at New Zealand ports was 117 New Zealand dollars/JASm³, the export cost was about 108 US dollars/JASm³, and the export profit was about 7.6 New Zealand dollars/JAS/m³ [30] - Inventory: As of July 25th, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 3.17 million cubic meters, a 3.65% week - on - week decrease. The radiata pine inventory was 2.57 million cubic meters, a 2.65% week - on - week decrease. The North American log inventory was 190,000 cubic meters, a 17.39% week - on - week decrease. The spruce/fir inventory was 200,000 cubic meters, a 10,000 - cubic - meter decrease from the previous week. In terms of provincial inventories, the total coniferous log inventory in Shandong ports was 1.93 million cubic meters, a 0.10% week - on - week decrease, and in Jiangsu ports was 1.0164 million cubic meters, an 8.23% week - on - week decrease [32] - Outbound Volume: From July 21st to July 27th, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 64,100 cubic meters, a 2.72% increase from the previous week. Shandong ports had an average daily outbound volume of 33,900 cubic meters, a 0.89% increase, and Jiangsu ports had 24,600 cubic meters, a 6.03% increase [36] - Downstream Market: As of August 1st, 2025, the wood square prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained flat week - on - week, at 1270 yuan/m³ and 1260 yuan/m³ respectively. The processing profit in Shandong was 31 yuan/m³, and in Jiangsu was - 9.2 yuan/m³, both remaining flat week - on - week [40]
原周报（LG）：原木期货震荡运行-20250804
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-08-04 05:42