粕类周报：中美现行政策下，关注远月低多机会-20250804

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Under the current China - US policies, it is recommended to pay attention to the long - position opportunities at low prices for far - month contracts of meal products. The market is expected to be volatile, and it is advisable to go long on the M01 contract at low prices [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: Short - term bearish; the good - quality rate of US soybeans has risen to 70%, and the expected impact of future weather is limited. Under the pressure of concentrated arrivals of Brazilian soybeans, the domestic soybean crushing volume in August is expected to exceed 10 million tons, and the supply of meal products is expected to be abundant. The purchase of ships from October to January is slow, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the far - month under the current China - US trade policy. The supply of imported rapeseed meal and rapeseed in China is expected to decrease under the China - Canada trade policy. Medium - term bullish; domestic rapeseed meal is expected to see inventory reduction before September, and there is some uncertainty in supply after September [4]. - Demand: Bullish for soybean meal and bearish for rapeseed meal; short - term high inventory of pig and poultry breeding supports feed demand, but policy guidance may affect far - month pig supply. Soybean meal has high cost - performance and high提货 volume, while rapeseed meal is expected to maintain the rigid demand of the aquaculture industry. Some areas use wheat to replace corn, reducing the demand for protein. This week, the trading volume of soybean meal has increased, while that of rapeseed meal is relatively light [4]. - Inventory: Bearish; domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level, soybean meal is in the inventory accumulation cycle, the inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal have decreased, domestic rapeseed inventory has dropped to a low level, and rapeseed meal inventory is still at a high level with a slow inventory reduction speed [4]. - Basis/Spread: Bullish; the basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal has strengthened [4]. - Profit: Neutral; the premium of Brazilian soybeans has strengthened, and the crushing profit has improved. The quotation of Canadian rapeseed has fallen, and the crushing profit is good [4]. - Valuation: Neutral; the futures prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are at a neutral valuation level [4]. - Macro and Policy: Bullish; the China - US talks in Sweden have not led to a substantial easing of the current soybean trade policy [4]. - Investment View: Volatile, go long at low prices; there is currently no weather premium in the US soybean market, and the US soybean price is under pressure due to the unchanged China - US trade policy, but the downside space is expected to be limited. The strong premium of Brazilian soybeans offsets the impact of the decline in the US soybean price on the import cost. There is an expectation of inventory reduction in the domestic far - month, and the downside space of the 01 contract is expected to be limited. It is recommended to go long at low prices [4]. - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, the market is expected to be volatile, and it is advisable to go long on the M01 contract at low prices. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Data of Meal Product Supply and Demand - Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio: In July, the inventory - to - consumption ratios of US soybeans and global soybeans in the 2025/26 season have been raised [30]. - Sowing and Quality Rate: The sowing rate and good - quality rate of US soybeans are presented in relevant charts [44]. - Domestic Crushing and Export: The domestic crushing profit of US soybeans has increased, and the export sales volume of US soybeans has risen [48][58]. - Import and Cost: The CNF premium of soybeans and the import cost of Canadian rapeseed are shown in relevant charts. The exchange rate between the US dollar and the Brazilian real is also presented [65][67][68]. - Domestic Inventory and Trading Volume: Domestic soybean inventory is at a high level, soybean meal is continuing to accumulate inventory, and the inventory days of feed enterprises have decreased. The trading volume of soybean meal has increased, and the提货 volume is at a high level, while the trading volume of rapeseed meal is relatively light [73][97]. - Livestock and Poultry Breeding: The breeding profits of pigs, broilers, and laying hens, as well as relevant inventory and price data, are presented in relevant charts. The price of pigs has declined [113][118][122][127].