国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属-20250804

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - Gold: Non - farm payroll data weakened, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][9] - Silver: Fell from a high, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][9] - Copper: Firm spot premium restricts price decline, and the trend strength is 0 [2][13] - Zinc: Oscillated downward, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][16] - Lead: Declining inventory restricts price drop, and the trend strength is 0 [2][17] - Tin: Traded in a range, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][23] - Aluminum: The price center moved down, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][26] - Alumina: Inventory continued to accumulate, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][26] - Cast aluminum alloy: Followed the trend of electrolytic aluminum, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][26] - Nickel: Intensified long - short game, with nickel prices narrowly oscillating, and the trend strength is 0 [2][32] - Stainless steel: Macro factors faded, and prices returned to fundamentals, with steel prices oscillating at a low level, and the trend strength is 0 [2][32] Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 yesterday was 770.72, with a daily increase of 0.06%, and the night - session closing price was 781.12, with a night - session increase of 1.33%. Shanghai Silver 2510 closed at 8918 yesterday, down 0.98%, and the night - session closing price was 8994.00, up 0.80% [5] - Macro and Industry News: US non - farm payrolls in July increased by only 73,000, far lower than expected, and the data for the previous two months was revised down by 258,000. The Fed was divided over the employment situation [6][8] Copper - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract yesterday was 78,400, up 0.46%, and the night - session closing price was 78170, down 0.29% [11] - Macro and Industry News: Weak US non - farm employment data led to a sharp rise in interest - rate cut expectations. Peru is evaluating 134 mining projects with an expected investment of $6 billion. Trump imposed a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products starting August 1 [11][13] Zinc - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22320, down 0.11%, and the LME Zinc 3M electronic - disk closed at 2729.5, down 1.18% [14] - News: The deputy governor of the People's Bank of China said that the effect of monetary policy in supporting the real economy was obvious in the first half of the year [15] Lead - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 16735, unchanged, and the LME Lead 3M electronic - disk closed at 1974, up 0.23% [17] - Inventory: Shanghai Lead futures inventory decreased by 2412 tons to 59948 tons, and LME Lead inventory decreased by 1175 tons to 275325 tons [17] Tin - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 264,950, down 0.13%, and the night - session closing price was 266,370, up 0.80% [20] - Macro and Industry News: OPEC + agreed in principle to significantly increase production again in September [21] Aluminum, Alumina, Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20510, and the closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 3162 [24] - Comprehensive News: China's imports and exports in June all achieved positive year - on - year growth [26] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 119,770, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,840 [28] - Macro and Industry News: Canada's Ontario Province may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats. Some nickel - iron smelting projects in Indonesia have suspended production due to losses [28][30]