震荡调整是为了更稳步的突破

Core Insights - The report suggests that the recent market fluctuations are a necessary adjustment for a more stable breakthrough in the future [4][9][10] - The July Politburo meeting is expected to consolidate the positive momentum in the capital market, with potential incremental policies to be introduced in the second half of the year [10][11] - The macroeconomic indicators have shown strong performance, with a GDP growth of 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, laying a solid foundation for achieving the annual growth target of around 5% [10][11] Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a high of 3636.17 points this week but failed to maintain above 3600 points after two days of adjustment, ending a five-week upward trend [4][9] - The market experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.94%, the Shenzhen Component down by 1.58%, and the CSI 300 down by 1.75% [8] - The average daily trading volume in July was 16,336 billion yuan, an increase of 2,976.22 billion yuan compared to June, indicating improved market liquidity [24] Policy and Economic Outlook - The Politburo's directive emphasizes "sustained efforts and timely increases" in macroeconomic policies, allowing for flexibility in response to future developments [11][30] - The focus will remain on maintaining continuity in existing policies while also preparing for potential new measures to support economic growth [11][30] - The report highlights the importance of upcoming events such as the "Nine-Three" military parade and the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee as catalysts for market movements [30] Sector Analysis - The military industry has seen significant inflows of passive incremental funds, with the scale of military-themed ETFs increasing from 29.733 billion yuan at the beginning of the year to 53.392 billion yuan by July 25, marking a growth of over 78% [27][28] - Despite a weak performance in 2024, the military sector is expected to benefit from strong market expectations due to upcoming significant events and government initiatives [27][28] - The report indicates that the valuation levels of the military sector have improved compared to the end of 2024, suggesting a favorable outlook with limited downside risk [28] Investment Recommendations - The report advises focusing on sectors such as artificial intelligence, military, resource products, and innovative pharmaceuticals for speculative opportunities following recent adjustments [30]