Labor Market Insights - July non-farm payrolls increased by 73,000, below the market expectation of 104,000[11] - Revisions for May and June showed decreases of 12.5 and 13.3 thousand jobs respectively, indicating a weaker labor market than previously thought[11] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% in July, aligning with market expectations, while the labor force participation rate fell to 62.2%[11] Economic Trends - The U.S. labor market is entering a "loosened" phase, with both supply and demand weakening[3] - The average tariff rate in the U.S. increased to approximately 18.3% after August 1, down from 22.5% in April, which may impact economic activity[5] - The second quarter GDP growth was reported at an annualized rate of 3%, exceeding the market expectation of 2.6%[5] Federal Reserve Outlook - Following the release of the July employment data, the market has priced in an 80% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September[4] - Fed Chair Powell indicated a focus on the unemployment rate rather than non-farm payrolls, suggesting that a rate cut may be contingent on unemployment exceeding 4.3%[4] Market Reactions - Following the employment data release, the S&P 500 index fell by 2.4%, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 17 basis points to 4.2%[5] - The dollar index rose by 1.0% to 98.69, and offshore RMB depreciated to 7.1929 against the dollar[5]
海外周度观察:美国劳动力市场:脆弱的“紧平衡”-20250804
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-08-04 05:52