国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20250804

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Metals and Minerals - Gold, Silver, Zinc, Tin, Aluminum, Alumina, Cast Aluminum Alloy, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Iron Ore, Logs: Negative or Weak Outlook [-1] [2] [24] - Copper, Lead, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Carbonate Lithium, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Coke, Coking Coal, Steam Coal: Neutral Outlook [0] [12] [18] Energy - Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Negative Outlook [-1] [4] Chemicals - PTA, MEG, Rubber, Synthetic Rubber, LLDPE, PP, Caustic Soda, Pulp, Methanol, Urea, Styrene, Soda Ash, PVC: Negative or Weak Outlook [-1] [2] [4] Agricultural and Livestock - Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Soybean Meal, Soybean, Corn, Sugar, Cotton, Egg, Live Pig, Peanut: Varying Degrees of Outlook [-1, 0] [4] Others - Container Shipping Index (European Line): Negative Outlook [-1] [4] 2. Core Views - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodities in the futures market, including their price trends, fundamental data, and macro - industry news. The trends of different commodities are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - economic data, and geopolitical events. For example, the weak non - farm payroll data in the US has led to increased expectations of interest rate cuts, which has an impact on precious metals and other commodities [7] [12]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - Gold: Non - farm data is weak, and the trend strength is - 1. The prices of domestic and international gold futures and spot have shown certain fluctuations, with some contracts having positive night - trading gains [2] [6]. - Silver: It has fallen from a high level, and the trend strength is - 1. The prices of domestic and international silver futures and spot have also fluctuated, with some contracts having negative daily gains [2] [6]. Base Metals - Copper: The spot premium is firm, which limits price declines. The trend strength is 0. Macro - economic data and industry events such as project evaluations in Peru and tariff policies in the US have an impact on the copper market [12] [14]. - Zinc: It is in a downward oscillation, and the trend strength is - 1. The prices of zinc futures and spot have declined, and inventory data has also changed [15]. - Lead: Inventory reduction limits price drops, and the trend strength is 0. The prices of lead futures and spot have shown little change, and inventory has decreased [18]. - Tin: It is in a range - bound oscillation, and the trend strength is - 1. The prices of tin futures and spot have fluctuated, and inventory data has changed [20] [21]. - Aluminum: The center of gravity has shifted downward. Alumina is in continuous inventory accumulation, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend strength of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy is - 1 [25] [27]. - Nickel: The multi - empty game has intensified, and nickel prices are in a narrow - range oscillation. The trend strength is 0. The prices of nickel futures and related products in the industrial chain have fluctuated [28] [29]. - Stainless Steel: It has returned to fundamentals, and steel prices are oscillating at a low level. The trend strength is 0. The prices of stainless - steel futures and spot have shown little change [29]. Energy - Related Commodities - Coke and Coking Coal: The sentiment has been realized, and they are in a wide - range oscillation. The trend strength is 0. The prices of coke and coking - coal futures and spot have changed, and inventory and position data are also provided [54] [55]. - Steam Coal: The daily consumption has recovered, and it is oscillating and stabilizing. The trend strength is 0. The prices of steam - coal futures and spot in different regions are reported, and position data is also given [59] [61]. Chemical Commodities - Carbonate Lithium: Supply - side disturbances still exist, and wide - range oscillations may continue. The trend strength is 0. The prices of carbonate - lithium futures and spot have fluctuated, and market data such as trading volume and open interest are provided [34]. - Industrial Silicon: It is in a weak pattern. The trend strength is - 1. The prices of industrial - silicon futures and spot have declined, and inventory data has changed [37] [38]. - Polysilicon: The short - term sentiment continues to cool down. The trend strength is - 1. The prices of polysilicon futures and related products in the photovoltaic industry have fluctuated [38]. - PTA: The trend is weak, and attention should be paid to positive spreads in monthly differentials. The trend strength is not explicitly stated but is implied as weak [67]. - MEG: The unilateral trend remains weak. The trend strength is not explicitly stated but is implied as weak [67]. Agricultural and Livestock Commodities - Palm Oil: With the ebb of macro and crude - oil factors, wait for low - level long - position building. The trend strength is not explicitly stated [4]. - Soybean Oil: It is mainly in an oscillatory adjustment, and attention should be paid to the Sino - US trade agreement. The trend strength is not explicitly stated [4]. Others - Container Shipping Index (European Line): Hold short positions as appropriate, and it may continue to be weak. The trend strength is - 1 [4].