【宏观国债月报20250803】年中经济再度放缓，政策发力价格回-20250804

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report 10 - year Treasury Bond (T2509) - View: Range - bound trading in the range of [106, 109] - Logic: Slightly improved liquidity environment, continued focus on central bank's capital injection; loose monetary policy; economic data decline in June with weak domestic demand and external shocks - Concern Data: Economic data in May [7] 2 - year Treasury Bond (TS2509) - View: Range - bound trading in the range of [102, 103] - Logic: Slightly improved liquidity environment, central bank's open - market reverse repurchase; the tone of monetary policy set by the Politburo meeting in July is moderately loose - Concern Data: Changes in central bank's LPR interest rate, changes in central bank's monetary policy, economic data in May [7] 5 - year Treasury Bond (TF2509) - View: Range - bound trading in the range of [105, 106.5] - Logic: Slightly improved liquidity environment, central bank's open - market reverse repurchase; the tone of monetary policy set by the Politburo meeting in July is moderately loose - Concern Data: Central bank's monetary policy operations, changes in central bank's LPR interest rate, economic data in May [12] 30 - year Treasury Bond (TL2509) - View: Range - bound trading in the range of [111, 120] - Logic: Slightly improved liquidity environment, continued focus on central bank's capital injection; loose monetary policy; economic data decline in June with weak domestic demand and external shocks - Concern Data: Economic data in May [12] Summary According to the Directory I. Economic Situation 1. Consumption - Short - term consumption declined slightly. In June 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 4,228.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. From January to June, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 24,545.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0% [21] 2. Investment - Investment growth declined slightly. In the first half of 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 2,486.54 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. Among them, private fixed - asset investment decreased by 0.6% year - on - year. In June, manufacturing investment growth declined to 7.5%, a 1% decline from the previous month. High - tech service industry growth remained at a high level, exceeding that of high - tech manufacturing. Infrastructure investment growth excluding electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply industries was 4.8% year - on - year, further declining from the previous month [21][25][29] 3. Real Estate - In June, real estate investment growth continued to decline. The cumulative year - on - year decline in the floor area of newly started buildings was 20.1%, with a slightly narrowed decline. The cumulative year - on - year decline in the floor area of commercial housing sales was 3.5%, with an enlarged decline [35] 4. Import and Export - In June 2025, exports increased by 5.8% year - on - year, with a 1.0 - percentage - point increase from May. The cumulative export in the first half of the year increased by 5.9% year - on - year. Imports increased by 1.1% year - on - year, ending consecutive negative growth; the cumulative import in the first half of the year decreased by 3.9% year - on - year [39] II. Inflation Indicators 1. CPI - In June 2025, the national consumer price index increased by 0.1% year - on - year. In the first half of the year, the national consumer price index decreased by 0.1% compared with the same period of the previous year [46] 2. PPI - In June 2025, the national producer price index for industrial products and the purchase price index decreased by 3.6% year - on - year, with an enlarged decline of 0.3% [49] III. Policy Expectations - The Politburo meeting continued the general tone of "seeking progress while maintaining stability", emphasizing "maintaining policy continuity and stability, and enhancing flexibility and predictability". Fiscal and monetary policies did not introduce large - scale stimulus tools but focused on the "implementation and refinement" of previous policies. Fiscal policy focused on accelerating the issuance and use of government bonds, improving capital efficiency, and ensuring the "three guarantees" at the grass - roots level. Monetary policy focused on structural tools to support scientific and technological innovation, small and micro - enterprises and other fields, and promote the decline of social financing costs [49] IV. Overseas Data 1. US Economy - In the second quarter of 2025, the US GDP's quarter - on - quarter annualized rate was 3%, showing an obvious rebound from the first quarter [49] 2. US Inflation - In June 2025, the US CPI increased by 2.67% year - on - year, slightly higher than the market expectation; the core CPI was 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, indicating a mild rebound in inflation pressure but still within the controllable range [52] 3. US Employment - In July 2025, the initial value of new non - farm payrolls was 73,000, significantly lower than the market expectation of 104,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, the highest level since November 2021 [54] 4. US Manufacturing PMI - In June, the US ISM manufacturing PMI slightly rebounded to 49% but remained below the boom - bust line [56] 5. Fed Monetary Policy - The Fed paused interest rate cuts in July, maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.50%. Market expectations show that the probability of a rate cut in September is only about 40%, mainly due to Powell's hawkish speech after the July meeting. The probability of rate cuts from October to December remains high. The Fed may delay balance - sheet reduction [61][67][68] V. Other Data 1. Interest Rates - The DR interest rate continued to decline, breaking through 1.40%. The interest rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit also slightly rebounded compared with the previous month, with a general increase of about 3 - 5bp for each term [75] 2. Exchange Rates - In July, the on - shore US dollar - RMB exchange rate fluctuated around 7.17. The US dollar index remained weak in July, fluctuating around the level of 97 [82]