镍与不绣钢日评：“反内卷”情绪变化快、波动大-20250804

Report Title - Nickel and Stainless Steel Daily Report 20250804: "Anti-Involution" Emotions Change Rapidly and Fluctuate Greatly [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On August 1, the main nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange oscillated downward, with a trading volume of 106,856 lots (-36,962) and an open interest of 96,880 lots (-571). The LME nickel rose 0.56%. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium narrowed. The pure nickel fundamentals are loose, market sentiment has cooled to some extent, and nickel prices are expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to short on rallies [2]. - On August 1, the main stainless steel contract oscillated within a range, with a trading volume of 124,683 lots (-22,659) and an open interest of 89,339 lots (-5,109). The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium narrowed. Currently, macro - sentiment has a relatively large impact. Although the fundamentals are loose, it still takes time for prices to return to fundamentals. Prices are expected to fluctuate following the macro - situation. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Summary by Relevant Content Nickel Market Futures Market - Shanghai Futures Exchange: The closing prices of the near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts of Shanghai nickel futures on August 1 were 119,470 yuan/ton, 119,770 yuan/ton, 119,900 yuan/ton, and 120,160 yuan/ton respectively. The trading volume was 106,856 lots (-36,962), and the open interest was 96,880 lots (-571). The inventory decreased by 331 tons to 21,374 tons [2]. - London Metal Exchange (LME): The official spot price of LME 3 - month nickel on August 1 was 15,440 US dollars/ton. The closing price of the electronic trading session was 15,265 US dollars/ton, and the closing price of the on - site trading session was 14,987 US dollars/ton. The trading volume was 806 lots (7,318 more than before). The registered warehouse receipts were 0 tons [2]. Spot Market - Nickel ore: The average prices of Philippine laterite nickel ore with grades of 0.9% (CIF), 1.5% (CIF), and 1.8% (CIF) remained unchanged at 29 US dollars/wet ton, 58 US dollars/wet ton, and 79.5 US dollars/wet ton respectively [2]. - Nickel products: The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was 124,650 yuan/ton (-600). The average price of 1 Jinchuan nickel was 125,650 yuan/ton (-550). The average price of 1 imported nickel (Russian nickel) was 124,050 yuan/ton (-550) [2]. Supply and Demand - Supply: Nickel ore prices were flat. Last week, the arrival volume of nickel ore increased, and port inventories accumulated. The loss of nickel - iron plants narrowed. In July, domestic and Indonesian nickel - iron production decreased, and nickel - iron inventories accumulated. Domestic electrolytic nickel production decreased in July, and export profits expanded [2]. - Demand: Ternary production increased; stainless steel plant production decreased; alloy and electroplating demand was stable [2]. Inventory - Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased, LME inventory increased, social inventory decreased, and bonded area inventory increased [2]. Stainless Steel Market Futures Market - The main stainless steel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange oscillated within a range on August 1. The trading volume was 124,683 lots (-22,659), and the open interest was 89,339 lots (-5,109) [2]. Spot Market - The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium narrowed [2]. Supply and Demand - Supply: Stainless steel production decreased in July [2]. - Demand: Terminal demand was weak [2]. Cost - The price of high - nickel pig iron remained stable, and the price of high - carbon ferrochrome increased [2]. Inventory - Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased. The social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel last week was 64,460 tons (+6,100) [2]. Other Information - In July 2025, the US non - farm payrolls increased by 73,000, far lower than the expected 110,000. The previous two months were significantly revised down by 258,000 jobs. Traders fully priced in two Fed rate cuts by the end of the year [2]. - On July 28, 2025, the London Metal Exchange (LME) officially announced that the "JIEN" brand electrolytic nickel was successfully registered as an LME deliverable brand, with a registered production capacity of 5,000 tons/year [2].