市场快讯：蛋价承压回落期货再度交易收升水逻辑

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term egg prices are under pressure to correct and will maintain a weak trend due to the continuous rise in inventory [3]. - Mid - term, the combination of concentrated culling and the Mid - Autumn Festival consumption peak may drive a staged rebound in spot prices from August to September, but the rebound high depends on the culling rhythm, and currently the culling is less than expected, so the high should not be overly optimistic [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Performance - The main contract of egg futures dropped significantly with a gap today. As of the time of writing, the 2509 contract fell to 3409 yuan/500 kilograms, a decline of 2.71% [3]. Spot Performance - The social inventory level has been rising recently, and the egg price weakness continued over the weekend. On August 3, the spot price of Guantao powder eggs was 2.84 yuan/jin, down 0.12 yuan/jin from last Friday [3]. - In July, the national laying - hen inventory was about 1.356 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 1.19% and a year - on - year increase of 6.19%. The theoretical estimated value of the laying - hen inventory in August is 1.363 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 0.52% [3]. Analysis Logic - Short - term, the continuous rise in inventory causes egg prices to face correction pressure and maintain a weak trend [3]. - Mid - term, concentrated culling and the Mid - Autumn Festival consumption peak may drive a staged rebound in spot prices from August to September, and the rebound high depends on the culling rhythm [3]. Operation Suggestions - Last week, it was continuously suggested to maintain a high - selling strategy for the 2509 and 2510 contracts, and the trading strategy has been verified by the market. Currently, it is recommended to hold short positions cautiously. The lower support for the 2509 contract is temporarily at 3390 - 3400, and for the 2510 contract, it is at 3230 - 3240. If the support is effective, partial profit - taking can be considered [3].