有色金属日报-20250804

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bearish view with limited trading operability [1] - Aluminum: ★★★, suggesting a clear bearish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Alumina: ★☆☆, implying a slightly bearish view with limited trading operability [1] - Zinc: ★★★, showing a clear bearish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Tin: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bearish view with limited trading operability [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆, suggesting a slightly bullish view with limited trading operability [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★, showing a clear bearish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★, indicating a clear bearish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] Core Views - The market is affected by various factors such as mine accidents, tariff policies, and seasonal demand changes. Different metals have different price trends and investment suggestions based on their supply - demand fundamentals and market sentiment [2][3][4] - Short - term and medium - term price trends vary for each metal, and investors should adjust their strategies according to market conditions and price levels [3][9][11] Summary by Metal Copper - Friday, Shanghai copper's MA60 moving average closed positive. There was a casualty accident at Chile's Codelco mine, and the market is evaluating Trump's tariff policy. Hold short positions [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum oscillated today, with a 20 - yuan spot discount in East China. Aluminum ingots continued to accumulate inventory, and the apparent consumption in the off - season decreased significantly year - on - year. Shanghai aluminum positions fell below 600,000 lots. Cast aluminum alloy followed Shanghai aluminum's fluctuations, with the Baotai spot price down 100 yuan to 19,500 yuan. The scrap aluminum market had tight supply, and the aluminum alloy profit was negative. Consider going long on AD and short on AL if the price difference on the futures market widens. Alumina's industry profit has recovered, with operating capacity reaching a new high and total inventory increasing. Trade alumina short near the recent high of 3,500 yuan [3] Zinc - The 08 contract entered the delivery month, and the futures - spot price difference became zero. The TC of zinc concentrate continued to rise in August, and smelters were actively operating. The term structure flattened. The demand side provided insufficient support for prices. In August, SMM's zinc social inventory decreased from an increase, and short - sellers were cautious about re - entering the market. Hold a wait - and - see attitude [4] Tin - Shanghai tin fell below the M40 moving average. The spot tin price was 265,500 yuan, with a 620 - yuan premium over the delivery - month contract. It is expected to fall towards the MA60 moving average and 262,000 yuan. Hold high - level short positions [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened lower and oscillated, performing better than other anti - involution varieties. The market trading was active. In August, the anti - involution adjustment was approaching the end, and the futures price was at a discount to the spot price. The total market inventory remained high, and traders were positive. The output of the mid - stream decreased by 3% month - on - month. Try short - term long positions with a light position [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures oscillated downward. Affected by the polysilicon position - limit policy and inspection notice, the market sentiment cooled down. The spot price continued to fall by 100 yuan/ton. Large factories may resume production in early August, and the supply pressure still exists. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon's intraday fluctuations intensified and finally closed sharply lower. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued an energy - saving inspection notice for polysilicon. The PS2509 main contract is affected by multiple factors and is likely to oscillate widely in the range of 46,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to position control [11]