“新宏观”框架

Group 1: Macro Framework Changes - Since 2018, global macro factors have been changing, leading to a restructuring of the global economic system and a trend towards decoupling due to declining trust among nations[14][15]. - The monetary system is also undergoing reconstruction, with a shift in the pricing framework for assets like gold, the US dollar, and US Treasuries due to changes in trust and credit[17][21]. - The global economic system's integration has been challenged, as countries prioritize supply chain security over purely economic factors, leading to a gradual decline in direct economic links between major trading nations[16][20]. Group 2: Domestic Macro Framework Shifts - China's macro policy has shifted towards emphasizing high-quality growth and new development concepts, moving away from aggressive stimulus measures seen in the past[25][27]. - The real estate market in China has faced downward pressure since 2018, impacting the economy, financial systems, and asset pricing significantly[28][30]. - The change in the real estate cycle has led to a decline in interest rates, marking the beginning of a long-term bull market for bonds in China[28][31]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - In a low-inflation environment, long-term attention should be given to bond assets and high-dividend equity assets[31]. - Opportunities in export and overseas competition sectors remain promising, particularly for companies with stable demand and strong supply capabilities developed over decades[31]. - New consumption trends, such as value-for-money and emotional value consumption, present long-term investment opportunities[31].