Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group (09988) with a target price not specified [5]. Core Views - The report anticipates steady revenue growth for Alibaba in FY26Q1, with a projected revenue of 266 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 9.4%. However, adjusted EBITA is expected to decline by 21.7% year-over-year to 35.3 billion yuan, resulting in an EBITA margin of 13.3%. Non-GAAP net profit is projected to be 31.7 billion yuan, down 22.7% year-over-year [1]. - The report highlights that the cloud business is expected to maintain high growth, with a projected revenue increase of 19.8% year-over-year in FY26Q1, and adjusted EBITA growth of 15.7% [4]. - The local life segment is expected to see a revenue increase of 13.0% year-over-year, driven by a 50 billion yuan subsidy plan for Taobao Flash Sales, which aims to boost consumer and merchant engagement [3]. - The international commerce segment is projected to grow by 21.9% year-over-year in FY26Q1, with adjusted EBITA expected to increase by 51.8% [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FY26Q1 revenue is expected to be 266 billion yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 9.4%. Adjusted EBITA is projected at 35.3 billion yuan, down 21.7% year-over-year, and Non-GAAP net profit is expected to be 31.7 billion yuan, down 22.7% year-over-year [1]. Local Life Segment - The local life segment is projected to grow by 13.0% year-over-year in FY26Q1, supported by a 500 billion yuan subsidy plan for Taobao Flash Sales, which has already led to a record daily order volume of over 80 million [3]. Cloud Business - The cloud business is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 19.8% year-over-year in FY26Q1, with adjusted EBITA growth of 15.7%. The company has launched competitive AI models, enhancing its market position [4]. International Commerce - The international commerce segment is anticipated to grow by 21.9% year-over-year in FY26Q1, with a significant increase in adjusted EBITA by 51.8%, reflecting strong demand in various global markets [4].
阿里巴巴-W(09988):FY26Q1业绩前瞻:预计云业务维持高增速,闪购补贴或影响利润