Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [1] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a decline of 4.62% from July 28 to August 1, ranking 30th among all primary industries. The industrial metals sector fell by 3.81%, while precious metals dropped by 4.11% [15][1] - The return of "safe-haven trading" is expected to drive a new round of increases in gold prices due to disappointing U.S. non-farm payroll data [4][1] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.94%, with the non-ferrous metals sector underperforming [15] - All sub-sectors within non-ferrous metals saw declines, with energy metals down 5.41% and small metals down 7.11% [15] Industrial Metals - Copper: Prices are expected to weaken due to the implementation of tariffs and seasonal demand suppression. As of August 1, LME copper was priced at $9,633/ton, down 1.66% week-on-week [34][2] - Aluminum: Prices are also expected to remain weak, with LME aluminum at $2,572/ton, down 2.26% week-on-week. The industry is seeing increased social inventory [39][3] - Zinc: Prices fell by 3.52% week-on-week, with LME zinc at $2,730/ton. Inventory levels fluctuated [41][3] - Tin: Prices decreased by 2.71% week-on-week, with LME tin at $33,215/ton. Supply remains tight due to seasonal impacts [47][3] Precious Metals - Gold prices are on the rise, with COMEX gold closing at $3,416.00/oz, up 2.32% week-on-week. This is attributed to weak U.S. employment data and a decline in U.S. Treasury yields [4][51] - The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.248%, the highest since November 2021, further supporting gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [4][51]
美国7月非农就业数据大幅遇冷，“避险交易”回归黄金新一轮涨势开启
Soochow Securities·2025-08-04 07:43