聚酯产业链期货8月报告：宏观高不确定性，行情寻找方向-20250804

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polyester industry chain is facing high macro - uncertainty, and the market is seeking a direction. Each product in the chain has different supply - demand and cost situations, which will affect their prices. For example, crude oil prices may be strong first and then weak, PX prices are expected to be first up and then down, PTA may have a weak fundamental situation with a possible downward trend in absolute price, and ethylene glycol and polyester staple fiber prices may also fluctuate based on their supply - demand and cost conditions [4][16][49][94][137]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Polyester Industry Chain Market Review - In July 2025, the polyester industry chain was significantly affected by market sentiment, with prices rising first and then falling. In the first half of the month, prices were in a sideways shock due to limited supply - demand changes. In the second half, prices rose with the "anti - involution" sentiment and then declined at the end of the month [4]. 3.2 Crude Oil - In July 2025, crude oil prices were in a narrow - range shock due to the confrontation between production increase and peak demand. The price soared due to the expected sanctions on Russia. In August, supply is expected to continue to rise, demand may decline steadily, and prices may be strong first and then weak, with attention needed on tariff negotiations and US sanctions on Russia [9][16]. 3.3 PX - In July 2025, PX supply was stable with开工 around 80%. PX - Nap spread was strong. In August, supply will increase, but demand will also rise due to PTA's new capacity, and the spread will remain strong. PX is expected to continue de - stocking, and its price is predicted to be first up and then down, with an operation suggestion of range - band trading [29][43][49]. 3.4 PTA - In July 2025, PTA prices first decreased and then increased, with processing fees reaching a record low. In August, supply will increase due to new capacity, demand will remain stable, and PTA is expected to accumulate inventory. The price may decline under cost guidance, and it is recommended to short at high prices [51][65][94]. 3.5 Ethylene Glycol - In July 2025, ethylene glycol prices were supported by low inventory and then rose due to cost and market sentiment, and fell at the end of the month. In August, supply will increase, demand will remain stable, and the inventory is expected to remain low. The price may decline under cost influence, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [97][115][137]. 3.6 Polyester Staple Fiber - In July 2025, polyester staple fiber had weak supply - demand, and its price followed the cost with a first - up - then - down trend. In 2025, the capacity expansion slowed down, and the production increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. The processing fee fluctuated around the break - even line [140][146].