国泰海通建材鲍雁辛周观点：逐步进入低基数旺季，同步关注个股逻辑-20250804

Investment Rating - The report recommends a positive outlook on the consumption building materials sector, particularly waterproof materials with lower profit baselines [2][5][16]. Core Insights - The consumption building materials sector is entering a low baseline peak season in Q3 2024, with expectations for improved monthly high-frequency data and quarterly profit forecasts compared to H1 2024 [2][5]. - The cement and glass sectors are anticipated to experience price rebounds post mid-August, with potential supply changes during the September military parade providing price elasticity opportunities [2][5]. - Specific companies such as Puyang Nair and Reborn Technology are highlighted for their strategic acquisitions and market positioning, which are expected to enhance their profitability and competitive advantages [3][6][7]. Summary by Sections Consumption Building Materials - The sector is expected to see a recovery in profitability ahead of revenue growth, with a focus on cost reduction and price stabilization [15][16]. - Companies like Dongfang Yuhong and Rabbit Baby are noted for their strong cash flow and dividend performance, with market expectations for net profits in 2025 at approximately 20 million and 7.5 million respectively [16][17]. Cement - The cement market is currently experiencing a price decline, with a 0.3% drop noted, but is expected to stabilize as demand shows signs of improvement [19][43]. - The industry is seeing a shift towards limiting overproduction, with policies aimed at stabilizing supply and improving profitability [19][21]. Glass - The float glass market is under pressure with declining prices and increased inventory, but there is potential for recovery as supply-side adjustments take place [27][29]. - Companies like Xinyi Glass are projected to face a 30-40% decline in net profit for 2024, but maintain a healthy balance sheet and competitive positioning [29][35]. Fiberglass and Carbon Fiber - The fiberglass market is experiencing a split in production and sales, with larger manufacturers benefiting from high-end product demand while smaller firms struggle [36][39]. - The carbon fiber sector is seeing a recovery in wind power demand, which is expected to improve profitability in the coming quarters [40].