Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-08-04 07:49Report Overview - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report (Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Aluminum Alloys) - Report Date: August 4, 2025 - Research Team: Hongyuan Futures Metal Research Team 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The US tariff hikes increase global economic uncertainty, and the traditional consumption off - season leads to inventory accumulation expectations, putting pressure on aluminum prices [1] - For alumina, although the cost is pushed up by the rising price of imported bauxite from Guinea, the supply - demand is expected to be loose, so the price may be cautiously weak - For electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloys, the weak US job market raises the expectation of Fed rate cuts, but the traditional consumption off - season suppresses downstream demand, and prices may still have room to fall 3. Summary by Category Alumina - Supply - demand situation: Domestic bauxite supply is expected to be loose in August, with production and imports likely to increase. China's alumina production in August may increase month - on - month, and the surplus of alumina compared to electrolytic aluminum's operating capacity in July has expanded. Imports may decrease and exports may increase in August, and port inventories have decreased [3][18][27] - Price and cost: The price of imported bauxite from Guinea has risen, pushing up production costs. The average daily full production cost of Chinese alumina is about 2,880 yuan/ton. The price of alumina may be cautiously weak. It is recommended that investors hold previous short positions cautiously, paying attention to the support level around 3,000 - 3,100 and the resistance level around 3,500 - 3,800 [3][24] - Investment strategy: Hold previous short positions cautiously, pay attention to support and resistance levels [3] Electrolytic Aluminum - Supply - demand situation: Domestic electrolytic aluminum production in August may increase month - on - month due to the resumption and new production of some projects. Imports in August may also increase. The operating rate of downstream leading processing enterprises has declined, and the demand is weak [4][60] - Price and cost: The weak US job market raises the expectation of Fed rate cuts, but the traditional consumption off - season suppresses downstream demand. The price of Shanghai aluminum may still have room to fall. It is recommended that investors hold previous short positions cautiously, paying attention to the support level around 20,000 - 20,300 and the resistance level around 21,000 - 21,500 for Shanghai aluminum, and the support level around 2,300 - 2,500 and the resistance level around 2,700 - 2,800 for LME aluminum [4] - Investment strategy: Hold previous short positions cautiously, pay attention to support and resistance levels [4] Aluminum Alloys - Supply - demand situation: The production of domestic scrap aluminum in August may decrease, and imports may increase. The production of primary and recycled aluminum alloys in August may increase, and the raw material inventory of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises may increase while the finished product inventory may decrease. The import and export volume of unwrought aluminum alloys in August may decrease [6][71][84] - Price and cost: The weak US job market raises the expectation of Fed rate cuts, but domestic recycled aluminum alloy production is still in the red, and the traditional consumption off - season suppresses downstream demand. The price of aluminum alloys may still have room to fall. It is recommended that investors hold previous short positions cautiously, paying attention to the support level around 19,500 - 19,700 and the resistance level around 20,000 - 20,300 [6] - Investment strategy: Hold previous short positions cautiously, pay attention to support and resistance levels [6] Basis and Spread - Alumina: The basis and monthly spread are positive and basically within a reasonable range. It is recommended that investors hold previous long positions on the alumina basis cautiously [11] - Electrolytic Aluminum: The basis of Shanghai aluminum is positive and basically within a reasonable range, and the monthly spread is also positive and reasonable. It is recommended that investors wait and see for the arbitrage opportunities of the basis and monthly spread of Shanghai aluminum [39] - Aluminum Alloys: The basis and monthly spread of cast aluminum alloys are positive and basically within a reasonable range. It is recommended that investors wait and see for the arbitrage opportunities of the basis and monthly spread of cast aluminum alloys [67]