有色金属周报（锌）：偏弱格局不改，但下跌之路亦不顺畅-20250804

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information available in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the zinc market show strong supply and weak demand, with continuous inventory accumulation, providing limited support for zinc prices. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has increased, weakening the upward pressure on non - ferrous metals. Considering the possible recurrence of the "anti - involution" sentiment, the downward space for zinc prices is also limited. It is expected that zinc prices will mainly fluctuate within the range of 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton in the short term. Continued attention should be paid to macroeconomic conditions and downstream consumption [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Price Changes: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased by 2.07% to 22,230 yuan/ton, the closing price of the main SHFE zinc contract dropped by 2.47% to 22,320 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc closing price (electronic trading) declined by 3.52% to 2,729.5 US dollars/ton [13]. - Basis and Spread: The report provides historical data on basis, LME zinc premium/discount (0 - 3), trading volume - to - open interest ratio, and SHFE - LME ratio (excluding exchange rate impact) [15]. It also shows data on spot premium/discount in different regions and spreads between different contract months [17]. 3.2 Raw Material and Production 3.2.1 Zinc Concentrate - Port Inventory: As of August 1, the inventory of imported zinc ore at Lianyungang Port was 90,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons. The total inventory of 7 ports including Fangchenggang, Lianyungang, etc. was 333,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21,000 tons [24]. - Profit: As of August 1, the production profit of zinc concentrate enterprises was 3,984 yuan/metal ton. In June, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 330,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 32.87% and a year - on - year increase of 22.42%. From January to June, the cumulative import volume was 2.5339 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 47.74% [31]. - TC: The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee increased to 3,900 yuan/metal ton, and the import zinc concentrate processing fee index rose to 78.75 US dollars/dry ton [3]. 3.2.2 Refined Zinc - Production: The production profit of refined zinc enterprises continued to improve. As of August 1, the production profit was - 254 yuan/ton. In June, the domestic refined zinc production was 585,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 35,700 tons, and it is expected that the production in July will increase to about 600,000 tons [43]. - Import: The import profit window was closed. As of August 1, the import profit of refined zinc was - 1,577.43 yuan/ton. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 192,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 30,000 tons [47][48]. 3.3 Downstream Demand 3.3.1 Galvanizing - Operating Rate: The operating rate of galvanizing enterprises decreased by 2.65 percentage points to 56.77%. Black metal prices first rose and then fell, leading to poor sales of galvanized products, weakened orders, and some enterprises reduced their operating rates to consume existing inventories [54]. - Inventory: Galvanizing enterprises' raw material inventory decreased, and finished product inventory increased. Despite the continuous decline in zinc ingot prices during the week, downstream buyers mainly adopted a wait - and - see attitude, with more orders placed but less actual transactions. Weak orders led to the accumulation of finished product inventory [57]. 3.3.2 Die - Casting Zinc Alloy - Price: The prices of Zamak3 and Zamak5 zinc alloys decreased by 2.01% and 1.96% respectively, to 22,925 yuan/ton and 23,475 yuan/ton [64]. - Operating Rate: The operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises decreased by 2.79 percentage points to 48.24%. It is the consumption off - season, and although some enterprises resumed production, the overall operating rate still declined. In terms of terminal demand, orders for real - estate hardware, luggage zippers, etc. were average, and orders for electronic products were good but accounted for a relatively low proportion, providing limited support for enterprise production [67]. - Inventory: Die - casting zinc alloy enterprises' raw material inventory increased slightly as alloy factories' purchasing enthusiasm slightly recovered during the week of zinc price decline, but still mainly for rigid demand. Finished product inventory decreased [70]. 3.3.3 Zinc Oxide - Price: The average price of zinc oxide (≥99.7%) decreased by 1.84% to 21,300 yuan/ton [78]. - Operating Rate: The operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises increased slightly by 0.14 percentage points to 56.13%. In the terminal market, it is the off - season for domestic automobile production and sales, the rubber - grade market is average, and the feed - grade and ceramic - grade zinc oxide markets are weak due to the off - season. Electronic - grade orders are relatively strong supported by power grid demand [81]. - Inventory: Zinc oxide enterprises' raw material inventory decreased slightly as enterprises mainly made rigid - demand purchases during the week of zinc price decline. Finished product inventory increased [84]. 3.4 Inventory - Social Inventory: As of July 31, the SMM three - location zinc ingot inventory was 103,200 tons, showing an increase. At the beginning of the week, although zinc prices declined, downstream purchases were limited during the off - season, leading to continuous inventory accumulation. The SMM zinc ingot bonded - area inventory was 7,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,000 tons [92]. - Exchange Inventory: As of August 1, the SHFE inventory was 61,700 tons, showing an increase. As of July 31, the LME inventory was 100,800 tons, showing a decrease [95]. - Monthly Supply - Demand Balance: In June 2025, the production was 585,000 tons, the import volume was 25,000 tons, the export volume was 200 tons, the apparent consumption was 610,000 tons, the actual consumption was 586,000 tons, and the monthly supply - demand balance was a surplus of 24,000 tons [101].