铜：狂欢后的落寞，8月沪铜短期承压

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The exemption of import tariffs on electrolytic copper in the US will change the global copper trade pattern, and the copper resources flowing to Europe and Asia will increase. The domestic copper market fundamentals are expected to weaken in August, with demand dropping to the annual low and inventory starting to rise. The copper price is expected to face short - term pressure, but the downside space is limited. The copper price may reach the second high of the year in the fourth quarter [8][113]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Global Macro and Copper Market - China's economy showed good performance in the first half of the year, with GDP growth exceeding expectations. Policy support may enter a vacuum period in the third quarter. The domestic copper demand is expected to decline to a relative low in the third quarter, and the demand in the fourth quarter may be better than that in the third quarter. In the US, the manufacturing industry showed a phased contraction in the third quarter, and the overseas macro situation is expected to be bearish for copper prices in August [11][14][18]. 3.2 Copper Supply Situation Analysis - Mine End: The global copper mine supply was relatively loose in the second quarter, but the annual growth rate is expected to be low. The supply of copper concentrates is still tight, and the supply gap in 2025 is expected to exceed 1.1 million metric tons. The tight supply at the mine end has not yet affected the smelting end, and the domestic refined copper production has reached a new high. However, the constraints on electrolytic copper production are increasing, and the production is expected to decline in the second half of the year [23][30][39]. - Recycled Copper: The supply of recycled copper resources remains tight, which will restrict the domestic electrolytic copper production [46]. - Import and Export: The US's exemption of import tariffs on electrolytic copper will end its siphoning effect on global copper resources. The domestic smelting plants' export willingness will decline, and the domestic supply will increase [50]. 3.3 Copper Demand Situation Analysis - Copper Products: The domestic copper products output reached a record high in the first quarter and declined in the second quarter. The copper demand is expected to be weak in August and better in the fourth quarter. The annual output of copper products is expected to increase by more than 3% year - on - year [55]. - Sub - sectors: The output of refined copper rods, copper tubes, copper bars, and copper strips is expected to decline in August. The output of copper foil has increased against the trend, and the demand for new energy vehicles and power grid investment will continue to support copper demand [58][74][87]. 3.4 Copper Inventory Change Analysis - The global copper inventory showed a downward trend in the first half of 2025, with prominent structural contradictions. After the US exempted import tariffs on electrolytic copper, the global copper trade pattern will change, and the non - US copper supply will be relatively loose, suppressing copper prices [93]. 3.5 Global Copper Supply - Demand Balance - The global refined copper supply - demand structure was tight in 2025, with a supply gap of more than 1.1 million metric tons. The supply gap is expected to narrow gradually from 2026 [97]. 3.6 Copper Position Analysis - The total position of COMEX copper futures and options first rose and then fell in the first half of the year, and started to increase in July. The net long position showed an upward trend, and the capital's driving effect on copper prices was still obvious [104]. 3.7 Arbitrage Analysis - The Shanghai - London copper ratio is expected to remain volatile in August. The copper - zinc ratio is expected to continue to rise in the second half of the year [109]. 3.8 Copper Market Outlook and Operation Suggestions - The copper market fundamentals are expected to weaken in August, and the copper price will face short - term pressure. The downstream demand side is advised to slow down the pricing rhythm, and traders holding spot resources are advised to participate in selling hedging operations. The support range for the Shanghai copper main contract price is expected to be 77,000 - 78,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is expected to be 79,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [113].