黑色金属数据日报-20250804

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The futures market sentiment has not stabilized yet, and the spot market mostly follows the fluctuations of futures prices. The market is expected to return to the industrial fundamentals after the hot money is squeezed out. Attention should be paid to the impact of pre - parade production cuts and the release of spot from unwound basis trading positions on the market. [2] - The "anti - involution" trading in coking coal and coke has reversed. Due to regulatory tightening and macro - events, there is a risk of further decline in the market, and it is recommended to be bearish on the approaching - delivery 00 contracts and take profit on previous basis trading positions. [3] - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese have fluctuated sharply due to the wavering policy expectations. Although the supply and demand have some resilience, the inventory pressure remains high. [5] - The iron ore sector has fluctuated sharply after the meetings. The supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year, but the 01 contract still has support below and may rise after adjustment. [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Futures Contract Prices: On August 1st, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3257.00 yuan/ton, down 45.00 yuan (-1.36%); HC2601 at 3403.00 yuan/ton, down 29.00 yuan (-0.84%); J2601 at 1624.00 yuan/ton, down 69.00 yuan (-4.08%); JM2605 at 7000 yuan/ton. For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 3203.00 yuan/ton, down 40.00 yuan (-1.23%); HC2510 at 3401.00 yuan/ton, down 20.00 yuan (-0.58%); J2509 at 1585.00 yuan/ton, down 49.00 yuan (-3.00%); JM2601 at 1092.50 yuan/ton, up 11.50 yuan (21.06%). [1] - Cross - month Spreads: On August 1st, RB2510 - 2601 was - 54.00 yuan/ton, up 2.00 yuan; HC2510 - 2601 was - 2.00 yuan/ton, up 5.00 yuan; 12509 - 2601 was 26.00 yuan/ton, up 0.50 yuan; J2509 - 2601 was - 39.00 yuan/ton, up 14.50 yuan; JM2601 - 2605 was - 27.50 yuan/ton, up 62.00 yuan. [1] - Spreads/Ratios/Profits: On August 1st, the coil - to - rebar spread was 198.00 yuan/ton, up 13.00 yuan; the rebar - to - ore ratio was 4.09, down 0.02; the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.45, down 0.08; the rebar paper profit was 60.80 yuan/ton, down 0.60 yuan; the coking paper profit was 131.98 yuan/ton, down 78.51 yuan. [1] Steel - The futures market sentiment has not stabilized. The spot market follows the futures price fluctuations. The macro - level policy expectations have a negative impact on prices, and the market is expected to return to the industrial fundamentals. Attention should be paid to the impact of the release of unwound basis trading positions on the spot market and the electric - arc furnace valley - electricity cost support. [2] Coking Coal and Coke - The "anti - involution" trading has reversed. The fifth round of coke price increase is still possible but the steel - coke game has intensified. The futures prices have fallen sharply due to regulatory tightening and macro - events. It is recommended to be bearish on the approaching - delivery 00 contracts and take profit on previous basis trading positions. [3] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The prices have fluctuated sharply due to the wavering policy expectations. The supply and demand have some resilience, but the inventory pressure remains high. [5] Iron Ore - The sector has fluctuated sharply after the meetings. The supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year, but the 01 contract still has support below and may rise after adjustment. [6]