2025年8月橡胶策略报告-20250804

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rubber market is characterized by increasing supply and stable demand, with rubber prices expected to fluctuate widely. In August, rubber production in the producing areas will enter a growth phase, with favorable weather and expected price adjustments for raw materials. Downstream demand is stable domestically but weak overseas, and rubber prices are expected to mainly show wide - range fluctuations [2][106]. - For butadiene rubber, the cost support is weakening, and prices are expected to decline. With the commissioning of butadiene production capacity, the price support from butadiene is diminishing, and the fundamentals of butadiene rubber show strong supply and stable demand, with prices expected to fluctuate weakly [107]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Price - Futures and Spot Prices: From July 4 to August 1, 2025, the RU main contract rose from 14,005 yuan/ton to 14,310 yuan/ton, the NR main contract rose from 12,095 yuan/ton to 12,175 yuan/ton, and the BR main contract rose from 11,275 yuan/ton to 11,455 yuan/ton [5]. - Basis: During the same period, the RU main contract basis decreased by 5 yuan/ton, the NR main contract basis increased by 56 yuan/ton, and the BR main contract basis decreased by 80 yuan/ton [7]. - Price Spreads: The RU - NR price spread increased by 404 yuan/ton month - on - month in August 2025 compared to July 2025, but decreased by 215 yuan/ton year - on - year. The spreads between different rubber types also showed various changes [12]. - Difference between Natural Rubber and Synthetic Rubber: The price spread between natural rubber and synthetic rubber widened, increasing the substitution of synthetic rubber [18]. - Profit: In the peak rubber - tapping season, the rubber - tapping profit recovered. The processing profit of Thai standard rubber increased significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year [20]. 3.2 Supply - Global Natural Rubber Production: In June 2025, global natural rubber production was expected to decrease by 1.5% to 1.191 million tons, and consumption was expected to increase by 0.7% to 1.271 million tons. In 2025, global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 0.5% year - on - year to 14.892 million tons, with different trends in various countries [27]. - Southeast Asian Main Producing Areas: In August, the main producing areas in Southeast Asia entered the peak production season. The production of major countries such as Thailand, Indonesia, and Vietnam showed different trends. The export volume of major producing countries increased year - on - year cumulatively [31][35]. - China's Imports: China's imports of natural and mixed rubber continued to rise both month - on - month and year - on - year in June 2025 [40]. - Butadiene and Butadiene Rubber: The capacity utilization rate of butadiene decreased slightly month - on - month in August 2025. New butadiene production capacity was put into operation, and the production of butadiene rubber was at a high level. Some butadiene rubber plants had maintenance plans in August [43][46][49][52]. 3.3 Demand - Domestic Demand: Domestic demand for natural rubber was stable and increasing. The consumption of natural rubber in China showed a certain upward trend [57]. - Tire Industry: In August, the expected tire production start - up rate was expected to decline steadily. The inventory turnover days of tires decreased slightly. From January to June, tire exports increased year - on - year, but exports were expected to weaken in the second half of the year [60][64][66]. - Automobile and Heavy - Truck Industries: Automobile production and sales continued to grow, and the demand for heavy - trucks stabilized and strengthened [69][72]. 3.4 Inventory - Natural Rubber Inventory: As of July 27, 2025, the total social inventory of natural rubber in China was 1.293 million tons. The inventory in Qingdao and the exchange inventory also showed certain changes [74][82]. - Butadiene Rubber Inventory: As of July 30, 2025, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 31,300 tons, with the in - plant inventory decreasing and the trader inventory increasing [85]. 3.5 Position - RU Main Contract Position: The total position of the RU main contract showed certain fluctuations [86]. - NR and BR Positions: From July 4 to August 1, 2025, the total positions of natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, and BR all decreased [88]. 3.6 Options - Natural Rubber Options: The report presented historical volatility and put - call ratios of natural rubber options [91][93]. - Butadiene Rubber Options: Similar data on historical volatility and put - call ratios were provided for butadiene rubber options [96][102].