银行周报：国债等恢复增值税征收，消费、经营贷将迎贴息-20250804

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the banking sector, highlighting its configuration value and positive fundamental factors accumulating [5][37]. Core Insights - The banking sector outperformed the market, with the banking index declining only 0.84% compared to a 1.75% drop in the CSI 300 index. Notably, state-owned banks showed a positive performance with a 0.80% increase [5][17]. - The recent Politburo meeting emphasized the continuation of proactive fiscal and monetary policies, which are expected to support bank credit and enhance the operating environment for banks [7][8]. - The restoration of VAT on newly issued government bonds is anticipated to increase banks' holding costs and affect their asset allocation strategies, leading to a decline in the actual comprehensive yield of various bonds [10][11]. - The implementation of interest subsidies for personal consumption loans and service industry loans is expected to benefit retail banking, stimulating credit demand and enhancing market vitality [16][37]. Summary by Sections Latest Research Insights - The Politburo meeting on July 30 focused on stabilizing employment, enterprises, and market expectations, with a commitment to implement more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [7][8]. - The meeting also highlighted the importance of expanding domestic demand and developing new productive forces, which will benefit retail and technology finance businesses [9]. Weekly Market Performance - The banking sector's performance was relatively stable, with state-owned banks showing resilience. The overall banking sector's price-to-book (PB) ratio was 0.73, and the dividend yield was 4.09% as of August 1, 2025 [5][28]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the banking sector's basic positive factors are continuously accumulating, and an inflection point in performance is expected. It recommends focusing on the effectiveness of a package of policies and the upcoming 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session [5][37]. - Specific stock recommendations include Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398), Agricultural Bank of China (601288), Postal Savings Bank of China (601658), Jiangsu Bank (600919), and Hangzhou Bank (600926) [5][37].