铝策略月报-20250804

Report Title - Aluminum Strategy Monthly Report, August 2025 [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In August, with the relaxation of Guinea's aluminum ore export policy and the return of Shunda and Arufa mining rights, the supply is expected to increase. Along with the new production of alumina in Hebei and Guangxi and the impact of Indonesian imports, the surplus pressure of alumina will intensify. For electrolytic aluminum, the production of replacement capacity in Yunnan will continue to rise, and inventory accumulation may continue, putting downward pressure on aluminum prices. Before the peak season in September, downstream stocking is expected to gradually start. For aluminum alloy, following the logic of Shanghai Aluminum during the off - season, it is expected to shift to the expectation of spread repair in the 2511 peak season. In August, the pattern of the aluminum industry's supply - demand marginal strength is expected to shift from upstream to downstream, with opportunities for the convergence of the AL2511 - AD2511 spread and the expansion of the AL2509 - AO2509 spread. Attention should be paid to the progress of the alumina anti - involution policy and the inventory accumulation cycle of aluminum ingots [3] Summary by Directory 1. Price - In July, the alumina futures fluctuated higher, with the main contract closing at 3222 yuan/ton as of July 31, a monthly increase of 7.9%. Shanghai Aluminum fluctuated weakly, with the main contract closing at 20510 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 0.3%. Aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 19950 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 4% [5][6] 2. Spread - In July, alumina changed from a discount of 16 yuan/ton to a premium of 129 yuan/ton, and electrolytic aluminum changed from a premium of 40 yuan/ton to a discount of 20 yuan/ton [5] 3. Supply - According to SMM, it is estimated that the operating capacity of domestic metallurgical - grade alumina in July will increase to 88270000 tons, with a production of 7500000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.3% and a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. After Shandong enterprises completed regular maintenance, they returned to normal operation, and the operation in Henan, Shanxi, and Guangxi remained stable, with the overall operation continuing to pick up. In July, the operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum remained stable at 43830000 tons, with a production of 3730000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. After inventory accumulation at the alloy end, the ingot - casting volume of the upstream increased, and the aluminum - water ratio slightly dropped to 74% [3][5] 4. Demand - In the off - season, downstream demand returned to the rigid - demand rhythm, and the decline in the off - season operating rate converged. In July, the average operating rate of aluminum downstream processing enterprises was 58.7%, a 1.3% decline compared to June. Among them, the operating rate of aluminum plates and strips decreased by 1.9% to 63.3%, the operating rate of aluminum foils decreased by 0.86% to 69.5%, the operating rate of aluminum profiles decreased by 3% to 50%, and the operating rate of aluminum cables decreased by 1.34% to 61.8%. The processing fee of aluminum rods in Henan decreased by 50 yuan/ton, while in other regions, it increased by 50 - 230 yuan/ton. The processing fee of aluminum poles in Guangdong remained stable, decreased by 100 yuan/ton in Shandong, and increased by 100 yuan/ton in Henan and Inner Mongolia [3] 5. Inventory - In terms of exchange inventory in July, alumina inventory decreased by 11400 tons to 6015 tons; Shanghai Aluminum inventory increased by 21500 tons to 115800 tons; LME inventory increased by 104100 tons to 461000 tons. In terms of social inventory, alumina inventory increased by 22400 tons to 48000 tons; aluminum ingot inventory increased by 76000 tons to 544000 tons; aluminum rod inventory decreased by 6500 tons to 147000 tons [3][5]