Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report The polyester staple fiber market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, with cost under pressure. It is expected that the price of polyester staple fiber will follow the cost trend. PTA has large - scale device maintenance plans in August, but with the commissioning of new devices, the monthly output is expected to change little. The supply of ethylene glycol is recovering well, and the domestic operating rate has room for improvement, which will put pressure on the cost - end price. In the off - season, there will still be device maintenance for polyester staple fiber in August, the operating rate is expected to decline, and the demand is weak. Overall, the supply and demand of polyester staple fiber are both weak, and the cost - end is under pressure [65]. Summary by Directory 1. Polyester Staple Fiber Price: Fluctuating with Crude Oil Price - Spot and Futures Price Changes: From July 4 to August 1, 2025, the PF main contract closing price dropped from 6514 yuan/ton to 6382 yuan/ton, a decrease of 132 yuan/ton or 2.0%. The 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6770 yuan/ton to 6600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 170 yuan/ton or 2.5%. The basis decreased from 256 yuan/ton to 218 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38 yuan/ton or 14.8% [4]. - Monthly Spread Changes: From July 4 to August 1, 2025, the PF01 - PF05 spread changed from - 12 yuan/ton to - 56 yuan/ton, a change of - 44 yuan/ton with a growth rate of 366.7%. The PF05 - PF09 spread changed from - 26 yuan/ton to 120 yuan/ton, a change of 146 yuan/ton with a growth rate of - 561.5%. The PF09 - PF01 spread changed from 38 yuan/ton to - 64 yuan/ton, a change of - 102 yuan/ton with a growth rate of - 268.4% [9]. - Raw Material Price Changes: From July 4 to August 1, 2025, the PTA closing price increased from 4710 yuan/ton to 4744 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan/ton or 0.7%. The MEG closing price increased from 4277 yuan/ton to 4405 yuan/ton, an increase of 128 yuan/ton or 3.0%. The PX closing price increased from 6672 yuan/ton to 6812 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan/ton or 2.1% [12]. 2. Polyester Staple Fiber Cost - End: Focus on Device Recovery - PTA Situation: As of August 1, the PTA operating load was 72.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1 percentage points. Taihua's 1.5 - million - ton device stopped due to an accident, and Jiaxing Petrochemical's 2.2 - million - ton device was under planned maintenance. Some PTA devices of Yisheng New Materials, Yisheng Dahua, and Yihua reduced their loads recently. A line of Sanfangxiang's 3.2 - million - ton/year new PTA device was put into production at the end of July and produced products, and it was included in the production capacity base in August. The PTA production capacity base in the Chinese mainland was adjusted to 9171.5 million tons on August 1, 2025. In June 2025, the PTA output was 6.25 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 500,000 tons or 8.7%, and a month - on - month increase of 350,000 tons or 5.9%. In June 2025, China's PTA exports were 255,200 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons or 3.78% from the previous month. The cumulative export volume from January to June was 1.8568 million tons, a decrease of 377,700 tons or 16.90% compared with the same period last year [13][14]. - MEG Situation: As of August 1, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in the Chinese mainland was 68.64% (a month - on - month decrease of 0.97%), and the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) was 74.04% (a month - on - month increase of 5.79%). In June 2025, the output of ethylene glycol produced by the ethylene method was 981,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. The output of ethylene glycol produced by the syngas method was 605,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.2%. The domestic ethylene glycol output was 1.586 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.3%. In June 2025, China's ethylene glycol imports were 617,800 tons, with a cumulative import volume of 3.8454 million tons. The import volume increased by 2.34% month - on - month and decreased by 1.30% year - on - year. The cumulative import volume increased by 19.91% compared with the same period last year. On July 28, the MEG port inventory in the main ports of East China was about 521,000 tons [18][21]. 3. Polyester Staple Fiber Supply - End: In the Off - Season - Operating Load: As of August 1, the operating load of polyester staple fiber was 90.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.5 percentage points. Some polyester staple fiber devices still have maintenance plans in the future [65]. - Inventory: As of August 1, the inventory of polyester staple fiber was 13.5 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.7 days [31]. 4. Polyester Staple Fiber Demand - End: Weak Orders - Downstream Operating Rates: As of August 1, the operating rate of polyester yarn was 61.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.3 percentage points. The operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 61%, a month - on - month decrease of 5 percentage points [35]. - Output and Consumption: According to national statistics, in June 2025, the yarn output of enterprises above designated size was 2.065 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9% and a month - on - month increase of 5.84%. From January to June, the yarn output was 11.398 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%. In June 2025, the cloth output of enterprises above designated size was 2.78 billion meters, a year - on - year increase of 0.4% and a month - on - month increase of 4.12%. The cumulative cloth output from January to June was 15.37 billion square meters, the same as the same period last year. In June 2025, China's exports of uncombed polyester staple fiber (primary + recycled) were 141,000 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons or 11.88% from the previous month, with an average export price of 903.01 US dollars/ton. The cumulative export volume from January to June was 809,400 tons, an increase of 184,200 tons or 29.46% compared with the same period last year [40][45]. - Inventory of Intermediate Products: As of June 2025, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 27.23 days, an increase of 4.89 days from the end of last month. The cloth inventory was 36.61 days, an increase of 3.72 days from the end of last month. In the off - season, the finished product inventory of textile enterprises continued to increase [42]. 5. Polyester Staple Fiber Terminal Demand: Terminal Demand Underperforms Expectations - Textile and Garment Exports: In June, textile and garment exports were 27.31 billion US dollars, a year - on - year slight decrease of 0.1%. Among them, textile exports were 12.05 billion US dollars, a decrease of 1.6% and a month - on - month decrease of 4.6%. Garment exports were 15.27 billion US dollars, an increase of 1% and a month - on - month increase of 12.4%. From January to June, the cumulative textile and garment exports were 143.98 billion US dollars, an increase of 0.8%. Among them, textile exports were 70.52 billion US dollars, an increase of 1.8%, and garment exports were 73.46 billion US dollars, a decrease of 0.2%. Due to the slowdown of exports from ASEAN and South Asia to the US, the demand for importing yarn and fabrics decreased, resulting in a 1.9% and 1.6% decrease in China's textile intermediate product exports in May and June respectively, which dragged down the overall exports [50]. - Domestic Consumption: From January to June 2025, the national online retail sales were 7.4295 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. Among them, the online retail sales of physical goods were 6.1191 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.0%, accounting for 24.9% of the total retail sales of social consumer goods. In the online retail sales of physical goods, the sales of food, clothing, and daily necessities increased by 15.7%, 1.4%, and 5.3% respectively. In June 2025, the total retail sales of social consumer goods were 4.2287 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. Among them, the retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles were 3.7649 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.8%. From January to June, the total retail sales of social consumer goods were 24.5458 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. Among them, the retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles were 22.199 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.5% [53]. 6. Polyester Staple Fiber Positioning Situation - Futures Positioning: As of July 31, 2025, the positions of PF2601, PF2605, and PF2509 were 12,354 lots, 69 lots, and 83,202 lots respectively. Compared with July 24, 2025, the positions of PF2601 increased by 5,951 lots, PF2605 increased by 1 lot, and PF2509 decreased by 24,592 lots. Compared with July 31, 2024, the positions of PF2601 increased by 11,411 lots, PF2605 increased by 36 lots, and PF2509 increased by 35,723 lots [57]. - Options: The report also presents historical volatility and historical volatility cone charts of polyester staple fiber options, but no specific data analysis is provided [59].
2025年8月涤纶短纤策略报告-20250804
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-08-04 08:23