光大期货硅策略月报-20250804

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August, the price of industrial silicon will be based on the cost after the cancellation of electricity price subsidies. The resumption of production in the southwest region will be the marginal driving factor, and the overall price center may rise slightly, but there is also a possibility of a significant downward pressure after low expectations. For polysilicon, the policy expectations have peaked, and the valuation has reached a bottleneck. The market's attention has shifted to the industrial supply pressure and weak demand structure. The spot price is anchored to the cost, and the futures center follows the premium of high - quality warehouse receipts. The dynamic news of capacity integration gives the futures market a phased premium. Continuously track the opportunity of shorting SI and going long on PS during the concentrated integration of polysilicon capacity and the resumption of production rhythm of industrial silicon in the southwest region [2]. Group 3: Summaries According to the Directory 1. Futures Price - In July, the industrial silicon futures fluctuated strongly. As of the 31st, the main contract 2509 closed at 8,860 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 9.18%. The polysilicon futures fluctuated upward, and the main contract 2509 closed at 49,130 yuan/ton within the month, with a monthly increase of 46.5% [4]. 2. Spot Price - The spot price continued to recover. The Baichuan reference price was 9,592 yuan/ton. Among them, the price of non - oxygenated 553 increased by 350 yuan/ton to 8,700 yuan/ton, the price of oxygenated 553 increased by 950 yuan/ton to 9,300 yuan/ton, and the price of 421 increased by 1,250 yuan/ton to 9,750 yuan/ton. The price of P - type polysilicon increased by 4,800 yuan/ton to 35,000 yuan/ton, and the price of N - type polysilicon increased by 11,800 yuan/ton to 45,800 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Spread - In July, the spread between 553 grades widened, the spread between high and low grades widened, the regional spread of 553 widened, and the regional spread of 421 widened. The industrial silicon spot changed from a discount to a premium of 390 yuan/ton, and the polysilicon spot changed from a premium to a discount of 3,135 yuan/ton [4][16]. 4. Supply - According to Baichuan, it is estimated that the domestic industrial silicon production in July was 352,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24% and a month - on - month increase of 6.6%. The monthly number of open furnaces increased by 47 to 262, and the furnace opening rate increased by 5.9% to 32.9%. In July, the polysilicon production increased by 9,400 tons to 105,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 26% and a month - on - month increase of 9.8%. The DMC production in July increased by 20,500 tons to 207,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 34.2% and a month - on - month increase of 11% [2][4]. 5. Demand - Under the anti - involution policy, new capacity investment has stagnated, but the backlog of inventory has not been significantly reduced. After the inventory of downstream silicon wafers decreased, enterprises began to accept price increases and enter the market to purchase. Due to the sudden shutdown and maintenance of a large organic silicon factory in Shandong, the overall supply of monomer plants continued to shrink. Affected by the previous low prices, there were many pre - sale orders. Recently, influenced by the upstream price increase and the psychology of "buying on rising" of downstream customers, the purchase volume continued to improve marginally, and the inventory pressure of monomer plants was relieved [2]. 6. Inventory - In terms of the exchange, the overall inventory of industrial silicon decreased by 9,000 tons to 253,000 tons in July, while the polysilicon inventory increased by 14,100 tons to 92,100 tons. In terms of social inventory, the industrial silicon inventory increased by 5,400 tons to 442,900 tons in July, among which the factory inventory increased by 5,900 tons to 271,400 tons; the inventory at Huangpu Port remained stable at 55,000 tons, the inventory at Tianjin Port remained stable at 68,000 tons, and the inventory at Kunming Port decreased by 500 tons to 48,500 tons. The monthly inventory of polysilicon increased by 5,600 tons to 27,540 tons [2][4].