聚酯数据日报-20250804

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The commodity sentiment has weakened, the domestic PTA production capacity supply has shrunk, and the port inventory has declined. The spread between PX and naphtha has expanded to around $250, while the alkyl transfer and TDP profit margins are not optimistic. The spread between PX and MX remains at around $90. The market port inventory has decreased, and polyester replenishment has improved under the weakening basis. However, the PTA basis has weakened, and the market replenishment willingness has declined [2]. - Coal prices have rebounded, leading to an increase in ethylene glycol prices. The macro - sentiment has slightly weakened, and the chemical industry has followed the weakening sentiment of bulk commodities. Overseas ethylene glycol plant maintenance, especially in Saudi Arabia, has been continuously postponed, which may have a significant impact on the market outlook. The future arrival volume of ethylene glycol has decreased. Polyester production and sales have weakened, downstream weaving profits have shrunk, and the terminal load has significantly declined, which has a certain negative impact on the market [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - Crude Oil: INE crude oil price dropped from 531.3 yuan/barrel on July 31, 2025, to 527.9 yuan/barrel on August 1, 2025, a decrease of 3.40 yuan/barrel [2]. - PTA - SC: The PTA - SC price dropped from 947.0 yuan/ton to 907.7 yuan/ton, a decrease of 39.29 yuan/ton; the PTA/SC ratio decreased from 1.2453 to 1.2366, a decrease of 0.0087 [2]. - PX: CFR China PX price dropped from 858 to 846, a decrease of 12; the PX - naphtha spread decreased from 250 to 242, a decrease of 8 [2]. - PTA: The PTA主力期价 dropped from 4808 yuan/ton to 4744 yuan/ton, a decrease of 64.0 yuan/ton; the PTA现货价格 dropped from 4825 yuan/ton to 4750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75.0 yuan/ton; the spot processing fee decreased from 189.0 yuan/ton to 173.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15.4 yuan/ton; the PTA仓单数量 decreased from 29738 to 27731, a decrease of 2007 [2]. - MEG: The MEG主力期价 dropped from 4414 yuan/ton to 4405 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.0 yuan/ton; the MEG - naphtha spread decreased from (119.91) yuan/ton to (122.10) yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.2 yuan/ton; the MEG内盘 price dropped from 4503 yuan/ton to 4480 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23.0 yuan/ton [2]. Industry Chain - PX: The PX开工率 remained unchanged at 77.29% [2]. - PTA: The PTA开工率 decreased from 76.64% to 74.06%, a decrease of 2.58% [2]. - MEG: The MEG开工率 increased from 58.13% to 58.81%, an increase of 0.68% [2]. - Polyester: The polyester负荷 decreased from 86.28% to 86.15%, a decrease of 0.13% [2]. Product Prices and Cash Flows - Polyester Filament: POY150D/48F, FDY150D/96F, and DTY150D/48F prices remained unchanged; POY现金流, FDY现金流, and DTY现金流 increased by 72.0, and the long丝产销 decreased from 27% to 25%, a decrease of 2% [2]. - Polyester Staple Fiber: The 1.4D直纺涤短 price dropped from 6650 to 6600, a decrease of 50; the 涤短现金流 decreased from 116 to 138, an increase of 22.0; the 短纤产销 increased from 49% to 56%, an increase of 7% [2]. - Polyester Chips: The semi光切片 price dropped from 5905 to 5845, a decrease of 60.0; the 切片现金流 increased from (79) to (67), an increase of 12.0; the 切片产销 decreased from 72% to 59%, a decrease of 13% [2]. Device Maintenance - An East - China supplier's 7.2 - million - ton PTA device reduced its load to 80 - 90% last night, and the recovery time depends on raw material logistics [3].