中银国际固定收益周报-20250804
Bank of China Securities·2025-08-04 08:29
- Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US Treasury market reversed dramatically last week due to policy signals and economic data. The Treasury Department's statement supported the long - end of the yield curve, while Powell's hawkish tone pressured the short - end. The disappointing jobs report on Friday sent September rate - cut probabilities soaring to 87% [3][5]. - China's credit bonds were generally stable before widening on Friday. Investment - grade and high - yield bonds widened by 5bps and 40bps respectively, and China CDS and iTraxx Asia ex - Japan IG CDS widened by 3bps and 2bps respectively [4][6]. - Different sectors in the bond market had mixed performances. The financial sector was mixed, the tech sector was largely steady, other IG bonds were affected by interim results, and the high - yield corporate sector was softer [5][6][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Secondary Market Recap - US Treasury: Yields on 2 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year Treasury notes fell 24bps, 20bps, and 17bps respectively. The 9 - month rate - cut probability changed from 40% to 87% due to the jobs report [3][4][5]. - China Credit Bonds: Before Friday, they were stable. China IG and HY bonds widened 5bps and 40bps respectively, and China CDS and iTraxx Asia ex - Japan IG CDS widened 3bps and 2bps respectively [4][6]. - Financial Sector: Leasing names once outperformed. FRESHK 28s and AVOL 30s tightened 5bps and 3bps before Friday. FWDGHD bonds' performance stalled. AT1s edged better, and in AMC, CFAMCI curve rose 0.2 - 0.4pt [6][7]. - Tech Sector: Benchmark BABA and TENCNT curves were stable. High - beta bonds like MEITUA 30s were muted. AACTEC 31s once tightened 9bps but reversed the change on Friday [8][11]. - Other IG Bonds: Sinopec's 1H net income fell 40 - 44%, SINOPE 30s was flattish. HNINTL 30s tightened 8bps. ZHOSHK 28s tightened 19bps. GWFOOD 30s had a gain then reversed most of it. HKAA 28s tightened 17bps [9][12]. - High - yield Corporate Sector: Chinese property stocks fell as home sales slumped in July. VNKRLE 27s fell 1.5pts, and Logan considered deeper haircuts in offshore - debt restructuring [10][12]. Primary Market - China Cinda HK Holdings issued RMB5.3bn bonds, with 3.5Y and 5Y priced at 2.35% and 2.43% respectively, significantly tighter than the initial pricing thoughts [16]. Recent Rating Changes - Moody's revised AAC Technologies Holdings' outlook to positive from stable due to profitability improvement and business diversification. It downgraded Shandong Energy's and Yankuang Energy's ratings to Ba2 with a stable outlook [19].