碳酸锂周报：价格回落后，“卷土重来”阻力大-20250804

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamental situation of lithium carbonate has not improved substantially. After the price decline, there is a certain purchasing demand from downstream. Considering the uncertainty of supply - side disturbances, it is expected that lithium carbonate will fluctuate widely. The recommended investment strategy is to sell out - of - the - money call options, with an expected operating range of 64,000 - 81,000 [3][84]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Carbonate Lithium Market Review - Last week, lithium carbonate fluctuated downward, with a weekly decline of 13.26%. The trading volume reached 3.4 million lots (- 2.87 million), and the open interest reached 216,100 lots (- 275,000). The basis was at a premium of 2430 yuan/ton [5][6]. 3.2 Supply Side 3.2.1 Lithium Ore - In July, China's lithium spodumene production was 6,500 tons LCE, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%; lithium mica production was 16,100 tons LCE, a month - on - month decrease of 4.2% [9]. - In June, the import volume of lithium concentrate decreased to 427,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 18.1% [13]. - In April, the amount of lithium spodumene shipped from Port Hedland to China decreased to 58,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 49.3% and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% [18]. 3.2.2 Lithium Battery Recycling - In August, the expected recycling volume of waste lithium batteries was 23,484 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.4% and a year - on - year increase of 28.9% [23]. 3.2.3 Carbonate Lithium - Last week, the production of lithium carbonate was 17,268 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.3%. In June, the import volume of lithium carbonate decreased to 17,698 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.6% [29]. - In June, Chile's exports of lithium carbonate to China were 10,226 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 41.2% [31]. 3.2.4 Lithium Hydroxide - In August, the operating rate of lithium hydroxide was 36%, and the production was 23,820 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 24.3%. In June, the export volume of lithium hydroxide was 6,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 56.1% [39]. 3.3 Downstream Demand 3.3.1 Lithium Iron Phosphate - Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate was 77,587 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3%. In July, the operating rate of iron phosphate was 59%, and the production was 252,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10% and a year - on - year increase of 70% [42]. 3.3.2 Ternary Materials - Last week, the production of ternary materials was 15,655 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.0%. In June, the import and export volume increased [47]. 3.3.3 Ternary Precursors - In August, the operating rate of ternary precursors was 41%, and the production was 76,160 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.1% and a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. In June, the export volume decreased [49]. 3.3.4 Lithium Manganate and Lithium Cobaltate - In August, the operating rate of lithium manganate was 33%, and the production was 11,978 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 26%. The operating rate of lithium cobaltate was 61%, and the production was 8,880 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.8% and a year - on - year increase of 11.1% [50]. 3.3.5 Electrolyte - In August, the production of electrolyte was 169,680 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.1% and a year - on - year increase of 38.0%. In June, the export volume of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased [57]. 3.4 Terminal Demand 3.4.1 Power Batteries - In June, the production of power batteries was 129.2 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 4.6% and a year - on - year increase of 52.9%. The loading volume of power batteries was 58.2 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 1.9% and a year - on - year increase of 36.0% [60]. 3.4.2 New Energy Vehicles - In June, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.268 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 26.4%. The sales volume was 1.329 million, a month - on - month increase of 1.7% and a year - on - year increase of 26.7% [63]. 3.4.3 Energy Storage - In August, the production of energy - storage batteries was 45.15 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 2.2% and a year - on - year increase of 42.9%. In May, the winning bid power scale of energy storage was 5.15 GW, a month - on - month decrease of 8.8% and a year - on - year increase of 18.7%; the winning bid capacity scale was 16.66 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 7.5% and a year - on - year increase of 16.3% [67]. 3.4.4 Consumer Electronics - In June, China's smartphone production was 10.827 million, a month - on - month increase of 19.0% and a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. The production of micro - electronic computers was 3.159 million, a month - on - month increase of 5.5% and a year - on - year increase of 6.6% [70]. 3.5 Cost - The price of lithium ore declined. The price of lithium spodumene concentrate decreased by 55 US dollars/ton, and the price of lithium mica decreased by 80 yuan/ton [73]. 3.6 Inventory - The total inventory decreased by 1,444 tons. Structurally, the smelter's inventory decreased by 3,427 tons, the downstream's inventory increased by 3,073 tons, and the other's inventory decreased by 1,090 tons. Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 1,206 tons, and the inventory of ternary materials decreased by 53 tons [80][81].