Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-04 08:47Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2. Core View of the Report The polysilicon market is expected to face certain adjustments due to an overbought signal in the short - term technical aspect. Prices are supported by cost and policies, but the upside is limited by downstream acceptance, likely showing a volatile trend. It's recommended to either wait and observe or arrange put options [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract was 48,720 yuan/ton, down 480 yuan; the main position volume was 98,033 lots, down 12,729 lots. The 9 - 10 polysilicon contract spread was - 155, up 25; the polysilicon - industrial silicon spread was 40,360 yuan/ton, down 340 yuan [2] Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon was 46,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis was - 2,630 yuan/ton, up 5,575 yuan. The average weekly price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 4.94 US dollars/kg, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract was 8,360 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan; the spot price was 9,800 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan. Industrial silicon production was 305,200 tons, up 5,500 tons; the total social inventory was 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - Polysilicon production was 95,000 tons, down 1,000 tons; the import volume was 1,113 tons, up 320 tons. The spot price of imported polysilicon in China was 6.01 US dollars/kg, up 0.98 US dollars [2] Downstream Situation - Solar cell production was 67,386,000 kilowatts, down 3,183,000 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells was 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB/W. The export volume of photovoltaic modules was 88,975,860 pieces, down 14,424,120 pieces; the import volume was 11,095,900 pieces, down 1,002,590 pieces [2] Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the Notice on the Special Energy - Saving Supervision Task List for the Polysilicon Industry in 2025. Some domestic polysilicon production bases or production lines are gradually resuming production, with potential supply increase emerging as the production resumes [2] Viewpoint Summary - On the supply side, there is a potential increase in supply as some enterprises resume production. On the demand side, the demand from the downstream photovoltaic industry is a key factor. The silicon wafer industry's开工率 has slightly decreased, but the new order transaction activity of silicon materials has increased. The price war of photovoltaic module manufacturers has ended, and the price has risen steadily, providing some support for the demand side [2]