Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The U.S. soybean market currently has no weather premium, and the Sino - U.S. trade policy has not eased, putting pressure on U.S. soybeans, but the downside space is expected to be limited. Brazil's premium is relatively strong, offsetting the impact of the U.S. market decline on import costs. There is an expectation of inventory reduction in the domestic far - month market, and the downside space of the 01 contract is expected to be limited. It is recommended to go long on dips [8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - This week, the good - to - excellent rate of U.S. soybeans rose to 70%. In the next two weeks, there will be less rainfall in the production areas, but the temperature will be low, and the expected impact is limited. Under the pressure of the concentrated arrival of Brazilian soybeans in China, the domestic soybean crushing volume in August is expected to exceed 10 million tons, and the outlook for soybean meal remains positive. The progress of domestic soybean purchases from October to January is slow, and under the current Sino - U.S. trade policy, there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the far - month market [7] Demand - The expected high inventory of pig and poultry farming in the short - term supports feed demand. However, the policy aims to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which is expected to affect the far - month supply of pigs. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, and the pick - up volume is at a high level. In some areas, wheat is replacing corn, reducing the demand for protein. This week, the trading volume of soybean meal increased [8] Inventory - The domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level, and soybean meal is in the inventory accumulation cycle. The number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has decreased [8] Price - related Data - On August 1st, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in different regions showed various values and changes. For example, in Dalian, it was 30 with a rise of 10; in Tianjin, it was - 50 with a fall of 10. The basis of 43% soybean meal spot to the main contract also varied by region, such as - 110 in Zhangjiagang. The basis of rapeseed meal spot in the East was - 75 with a rise of 24. There were also data on spreads like M9 - 1, M9 - RM9, etc., and the spot and盘面 spreads between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong [6][7]
蛋白数据日报-20250804
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-08-04 08:43