碳酸锂月度策略报告-20250804

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Market sentiment has declined, and weekly lithium salt prices have followed suit and dropped rapidly. In August, the supply - demand balance may further narrow. Weekly production continues to slow down, but with the price rebound, it is expected that the supply in August will still increase slightly by 3% to 84,200 tons, while the lithium consumption of the two major cathode materials in August is expected to increase by 8% to 86,000 tons LCE. Social inventory has seen its first destocking since the end of May, but there is still about 142,000 tons. After the market sentiment fades, the market focus is on the uncertainty of whether Jiakouwo will shut down. At the same time, there is a certain back - flow after the concentrated destocking of warehouse receipt inventory, but the total volume remains low. In the long - term, it should be noted that recently, Australian lithium mining companies have successively disclosed their financial reports, with many companies showing a month - on - month increase in production and sales, and overseas lithium ore supply remains stable and abundant [7]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Price - During the week, the main contract of lithium carbonate dropped by 14.4%, and prices in all links of the industrial chain have corrected. For example, the closing price of the main lithium carbonate futures contract decreased from 80,520 yuan/ton on July 25th to 68,920 yuan/ton on August 1st, a decrease of 11,600 yuan/ton [8][9]. 3.2 Inventory - Weekly inventory decreased by 1,444 tons to 141,726 tons. Among them, downstream inventory increased by 3,073 tons to 45,888 tons, intermediate - link inventory decreased by 1,090 tons to 43,880 tons, and upstream inventory decreased by 3,427 tons [16]. 3.3 Theoretical Delivery Profit and Import - Export Profit - There are data on the theoretical delivery profit of lithium carbonate, the import profit of lithium carbonate, the export profit of lithium hydroxide, etc., but specific numerical analysis is not elaborated in the text [24]. 3.4 Production of Lithium - Related Products 3.4.1 Lithium Resources - There are charts showing the import volume of lithium concentrates from different countries (such as Brazil, Canada, Australia, etc.), the import volume of lithium chloride, and the production of sample lithium mica mines and lithium pyroxene mines [27][29]. 3.4.2 Lithium Carbonate - Weekly production decreased by 1,362 tons to 17,268 tons. In August, it is expected to increase by 3.3% to 84,200 tons. The production from lithium pyroxene is expected to increase by 6,970 tons to 51,780 tons, while the production from lithium mica is expected to decrease by 3,100 tons to 14,900 tons, the production from salt lakes is expected to decrease by 2,320 tons to 10,020 tons, and the production from recycling is expected to increase by 1,120 tons to 7,500 tons [5][31][38]. 3.4.3 Lithium Hydroxide - In August, the production is expected to decrease by 5% to 23,820 tons [46]. 3.4.4 Lithium Hexafluorophosphate - In August, the production is expected to increase by 6% to 20,220 tons [49]. 3.4.5 Ternary Precursor - In August, the production is expected to increase by 5% to 76,160 tons [58]. 3.4.6 Ternary Material - In August, the production is expected to increase by 3% to 70,750 tons, and the weekly inventory decreased by 53 tons to 16,499 tons [61]. 3.4.7 Lithium Iron Phosphate - In August, the production is expected to increase by 7% to 311,400 tons, and the weekly inventory decreased by 1,206 tons to 93,672 tons [62]. 3.5 Power Cell - Weekly cell production decreased by 0.5% to 22.57 GWh. Among them, lithium - iron cell production increased by 0.5% to 15.66 GWh, and ternary cell production decreased by 2.7% to 6.91 GWh [66]. 3.6 Terminal - New Energy Vehicles - From July 1st to 20th, the new - energy wholesale volume of national passenger - car manufacturers was 514,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 25% and a month - on - month decrease of 12%. The retail volume was 537,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 23% and a month - on - month decrease of 12%. The retail penetration rate of the national new - energy market was 54.9%, and the wholesale penetration rate of new - energy manufacturers was 53.6% [6][77]. 3.7 Supply - Demand Balance - There are charts showing the monthly supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate and lithium ore, but specific numerical analysis is not elaborated in the text [81]. 3.8 Options - There are charts showing historical volatility, historical volatility cones, put - call ratios of option positions and trading volumes related to lithium carbonate [82][85].