Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-04 08:52Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - Last week, methanol port inventories increased as expected, mainly in the South China region. Typhoon weather affected the unloading speed and inventory build - up. The mainstream social warehouses in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang area and other consumption areas were weak and stable, so the inventory continued to increase. In the short term, the on - the - way foreign vessels are still sufficient while the apparent demand may remain weak. It is expected that the port methanol inventory may continue to increase, but the impact of weather factors on the unloading speed needs to be monitored. In terms of demand, after the restart of the olefin enterprise in Zhongmei Mengda last week, its load is increasing. Zhejiang Xingxing stopped production mid - week. After the offset, the olefin industry's operating rate increased slightly. Zhejiang Xingxing's olefin plant continues to be shut down, and Xinjiang Hengyou is expected to start production this week. There is still room for the olefin industry's operating rate to rise. The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2350 - 2400 in the short term [2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2390 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread of methanol was - 97 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; the position volume of the main methanol contract was 498,785 lots, down 34,291 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 96,632 lots, up 1,816 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 8,546, unchanged [2] 现货市场 - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2360 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia was 2075 yuan/ton, up 12.5 yuan/ton; the price difference between East China and Northwest China was 285 yuan/ton, down 32.5 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was - 30 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton; CFR China Main Port was 269 dollars/ton, down 3 dollars/ton; CFR Southeast Asia was 333 dollars/ton, unchanged; FOB Rotterdam was 244 euros/ton, down 1 euro/ton; the price difference between China Main Port and Southeast Asia was - 64 dollars/ton, down 3 dollars/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.1 dollars/million British thermal units, unchanged [2] Industrial Situation - The inventory in East China ports was 57.2 tons, up 2.5 tons; the inventory in South China ports was 23.64 tons, up 5.76 tons; the methanol import profit was 52.08 yuan/ton, up 20.57 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume was 122.02 tons, down 7.21 tons; the inventory of inland enterprises was 324,500 tons, down 15,300 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises was 85.36%, up 1.38% [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde was 43.29%, up 5.55%; the operating rate of acetic acid was 91.4%, down 1.29%; the operating rate of dimethyl ether was 5.33%, up 0.14%; the operating rate of MTBE was 67.79%, down 1.22%; the operating rate of olefins was 85.27%, up 0.32%; the on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins was - 896 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 26.06%, up 0.05%; the 40 - day historical volatility of methanol was 27.47%, up 0.02%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol was 17.35%, down 2.94%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for methanol was 17.35%, down 2.94% [2] 2. Industry News - As of July 30, the inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises was 32.45 tons, a decrease of 1.53 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 4.51%; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 23.07 tons, a decrease of 1.41 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 5.76% [2] - As of July 30, the total inventory of China's methanol ports was 80.84 tons, an increase of 8.26 tons from the previous data. Among them, the inventory in East China increased by 2.50 tons, and the inventory in South China increased by 5.76 tons [2] - Recently, the output of restored domestic methanol production capacity is more than the loss of production capacity due to maintenance and production cuts, and the overall output has increased slightly. Last week, the inventory of inland enterprises decreased slightly, but the resumption of some regional plants and the increase in load may lead to an increase in regional inventory. In the short term, the enterprise inventory may show obvious regional differentiation [2] - As of July 31, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 86.39%, a month - on - month increase of 0.32% [2]