Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - International factors such as good production prospects in major Asian sugar - producing countries, strong production signs in Brazil, and a weak US employment report have put pressure on raw sugar prices. Domestically, the opening of the extra - quota profit window has released import pressure. Although the demand side has some support due to the hot summer and the need for food and beverage industries to stock up, overall, the weakening of the outer - market price drags down the domestic sugar price, and with the continuous opening of the import profit window and strengthened import expectations, the short - term trend is a weak and volatile one [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for sugar is 5718 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the main contract position is 205,423 hands, down 25,642 hands; the warehouse receipt quantity is 19,373 sheets, down 70 sheets; the import processing estimated price for Brazilian sugar (within quota) is 4466 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; for Thai sugar (within quota) is 4542 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; the import estimated price for Brazilian sugar (outside quota, 50% tariff) and Thai sugar (outside quota, 50% tariff) are both down 18 yuan [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5865 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; in Nanning is 6030 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Liuzhou is 6080 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sowing area is 1480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the sowing area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, down 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The national cumulative sugar production is 1116.21 million tons, up 5.49 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales volume is 811.38 million tons, up 86.92 million tons; the national industrial sugar inventory is 304.83 million tons, down 81.43 million tons; the national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, up 7.47 percentage points; the monthly sugar import volume is 420,000 tons, up 70,000 tons; the monthly Brazilian sugar export volume is 335.9 million tons, up 110.24 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, up 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft - drink production is 2.9%, down 0.1 percentage point [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 5.86%, down 2.08 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar is 5.86%, down 2.08 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 6.22%, up 0.05 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of sugar is 7.05%, down 0.03 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In the first half of July, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil increased by 15% year - on - year to 341 million tons; the Pakistani government has ordered the import of 200,000 tons of sugar to stabilize domestic prices and relieve the burden on consumers [2].
瑞达期货白糖产业日报-20250804