股指日报：反弹修正，但驱动不强-20250804

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report After two consecutive days of significant corrections last week, the sentiment in the stock market has recovered today. However, although the market has moved upward, the trading volume remains in a contraction state. The leading industries are mainly related to military (Pakistan's defense layout information), robotics (mass production of robot orders and accelerated corporate financing), and precious metals (due to the unexpected US non - farm data, the US dollar index declined, and the risk - aversion sentiment increased), all driven by short - term information changes, and their sustainability is expected to be limited. From the perspective of stock index futures indicators, the market shows short - sellers leaving, which mainly reflects that investors believe the possibility of short - term corrections has decreased. Without obvious bullish factors, the possibility of a continuous upward trend is low. It is expected that the stock index will fluctuate within the week, so it is not advisable to chase high in operation [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review The stock index generally moved upward today, with small - cap stocks showing stronger performance. In terms of capital, the trading volume of the two markets decreased by 99.8 billion yuan. In the futures index market, all stock index futures increased in price with reduced volume, indicating that the market was mainly driven by short - covering [2]. Important Information - HSBC raised its GDP growth forecasts for China in 2025 and 2026. - The China Federation of Machinery Industry stated that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is about to issue a work plan for stabilizing growth in industries such as machinery, automobiles, and power equipment [3]. Strategy Recommendation It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see strategy [5]. Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | 0.52 | 0.54 | 0.97 | 1.42 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 7.71 | 3.8519 | 7.7587 | 18.9239 | | Trading volume change compared to the previous day (10,000 lots) | - 2.2338 | - 1.2314 | - 1.1855 | - 2.3743 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 25.4635 | 9.2065 | 21.695 | 33.7048 | | Open interest change compared to the previous day (10,000 lots) | - 0.7234 | - 0.4835 | - 0.3294 | - 0.1172 | [5] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 0.66 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | 0.46 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 3.08 | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 14985.50 | | Trading volume change compared to the previous day (billion yuan) | - 998.00 | [6]