债市情绪面周报（7月第5周）：固收卖方怎么看增值税恢复征收？-20250804

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The resumption of VAT collection on bonds has a short - term positive and long - term negative impact on the bond market, but the overall impact is controllable. In the short term, the cost - performance of existing bonds and credit bonds has increased, and the bond market has risen stage by stage. In the long term, it may be unfavorable to the bond market. The probability of the bond market breaking through the previous low has decreased, and it may still fluctuate in the range of 1.65% - 1.70%. Attention should be paid to the primary issuance rate of new bonds after August 8 and the impact of macro factors on the risk preference of the bond market [2]. - When summarizing the views of fixed - income sellers on the resumption of VAT collection, there are bullish, neutral/ bearish views. Half of the fixed - income sellers are bullish on the bond market this week, but the sentiment has declined compared with last week. The sentiment of fixed - income buyers is relatively cautious, and nearly 70% are neutral [3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Seller and Buyer Markets 1.1 Seller Market Sentiment Index and Interest - rate Bonds - The weighted index of the seller sentiment this week is 0.33, and the unweighted index is 0.47, both showing a decline compared with last week. The current institutions generally hold a neutral - to - bullish view, with 15 bullish, 14 neutral, and 1 bearish. 50% of the institutions are bullish, and 47% are neutral, and 3% are bearish [13]. 1.2 Buyer Market Sentiment Index and Interest - rate Bonds - The weighted sentiment index of buyers this week is 0.08, and the unweighted index is 0.11, with the unweighted index decreasing by 0.08 compared with last week. Currently, institutions generally hold a neutral - to - bullish view, with 6 bullish, 19 neutral, and 3 bearish. 21% of the institutions are bullish, 68% are neutral, and 11% are bearish [14]. 1.3 Credit Bonds - Market hot topics include preventive redemptions of wealth management products and a decline in the scale of credit - bond ETFs. The preventive redemptions of wealth management products are due to the central bank's continuous net withdrawal and tightened capital, leading to selling pressure on credit bonds. The growth of credit - bond ETFs has slowed down, and the subsequent increase in ETFs may fall short of expectations [19]. 1.4 Convertible Bonds - Institutions generally hold a neutral - to - bullish view this week, with 10 bullish and 3 neutral. 77% of the institutions are bullish, and 23% are neutral [22]. 2. Treasury Bond Futures Tracking 2.1 Futures Trading - As of August 1, the prices of TS/TF/T/TL contracts of treasury bonds have all increased, while the trading volume, open interest, and trading - to - open - interest ratio have all decreased [26][27]. 2.2 Spot Bond Trading - On August 1, the turnover rates of 30 - year treasury bonds and interest - rate bonds decreased, while the turnover rate of 10 - year China Development Bank bonds increased [32][36]. 2.3 Basis Trading - As of August 1, the basis and net basis of the main contracts have all narrowed, and the IRR has generally increased [41][44]. 2.4 Inter - delivery Spread and Inter - variety Spread - The inter - delivery spread of the TL contract has widened, while the spreads of other main contracts have narrowed. Among the inter - variety spreads, except for the 2*TF - T contract, the spreads of other main contracts have narrowed [51][52].