2025Q2美国GDP数据点评：增速虽反弹，美国经济放缓趋势难改

Economic Growth Insights - The actual GDP growth rate for Q2 2025 was 3%, significantly above the expected 2.6% and a recovery from the previous quarter's -0.5%[6] - Personal consumption increased by 1.4% compared to the previous quarter's 0.5%, while private investment saw a sharp decline of -15.6% from a prior growth of 23.8%[6] - Domestic final sales, which exclude trade, inventory, and government impacts, recorded a mere 1.2% growth, down from 1.9%, indicating a weakening underlying economic momentum[6] Consumption and Investment Trends - Personal consumption, a critical component of GDP, showed a slight recovery but remained low at 1.4%, with goods outperforming services[6] - Private investment's significant contraction of -15.6% contributed to a 3.1% drag on GDP, with both residential and non-residential investments shrinking for two consecutive quarters[6] - The decline in consumer confidence and income growth is expected to further suppress consumer demand moving forward[6] Inflation and Policy Outlook - The PCE price index for Q2 2025 rose to 2.6%, exceeding expectations, while the core PCE index reached 2.8%[6] - The impact of tariffs is becoming evident in consumer prices, with notable increases in durable goods and services[6] - The market may be overestimating both economic growth and inflation, with potential for monetary policy easing in 2026, contrary to current market pricing[6]