Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The driving logic of cotton has changed, and there is not much contradiction between supply and demand in the new cotton year. In the international market, the price of American cotton is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and in the domestic market, the 09 contract of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly weakly, while the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and strongly in the long - term [11][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Side - In the 2025/26 season, the global cotton production is still in a high - yield pattern. The USDA July report estimated that the global cotton production in 2025/26 would be 25.783 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 322,000 tons or 1.2%, but there is an expectation of an increase later. The estimated production of Chinese cotton is 6.75 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 218,000 tons or 3.1%, but the market believes there is an upward adjustment space of about 500,000 tons. Recently, the United States has been affected by drought, but the actual impact is limited, and the good - to - excellent rate of American cotton is still 55% [6]. - In 2025, the actual sown area of domestic cotton increased month - on - month, and the total output is expected to increase by 2.8% year - on - year. The actual sown area of the whole country is 4.5803 million hectares, with a year - on - year increase of 6.3%, and the estimated output is 6.864 million tons [49]. - The sales rate of lint cotton is much higher than the same period last year. As of July 24, 2025, the sales volume of cotton was 6.44 million tons, and the sales rate was 96.5% [57]. Demand Side - The USDA July report estimated that the global cotton consumption in 2025/26 would be 25.718 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 309,000 tons or 1.2%. The estimated consumption of Chinese cotton is 7.947 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 109,000 tons or 1.2%, and China is the only major cotton - consuming country with a year - on - year decrease [7]. - In June, the retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles in China were 127.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%, and the cumulative retail sales from January to June were 742.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. The retail sales of clothing products were 89.82 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.7%, and the cumulative retail sales from January to June were 534.13 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. The year - on - year increase in retail sales of textile and clothing products is lower than that of social retail sales [7]. - As of the week ending August 1, the comprehensive load of yarn was 49.32%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.34 percentage points; the load of pure - cotton yarn mills was 47.48%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.54 percentage points. The comprehensive load of staple - fiber cloth was 47.78%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 percentage points; the load of pure - cotton grey cloth was 44.36%, a week - on - week increase of 0.04 percentage points [7]. Import and Export - In June, China's cotton imports were 30,000 tons, hitting a new low in recent years, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 130,000 tons. The import volume of cotton yarn was 110,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons [8]. - In June 2025, the export value of China's textile yarns, fabrics, and related products was 12.048 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.64%. From January to June, the cumulative export value was 70.519 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. The export value of clothing and clothing accessories in June was 15.267 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 0.79%, and the cumulative export from January to June was 73.459 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.2% [8]. Inventory - As of mid - July, China's commercial cotton inventory was 2.5424 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 287,400 tons; the industrial inventory was 882,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20,900 tons; the total was 3.4245 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 308,300 tons [9]. - As of the week ending August 1, the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 29.62 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.12 days; the comprehensive inventory of staple - fiber cloth was 33.48 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.14 days. The cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 31.36 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.5 days; the cotton - yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 30.14 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.02 days. The cotton - yarn inventory of weaving factories was 5.48 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.12 days; the inventory of pure - cotton grey cloth was 37.1 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 days [9]. International Market - After the end of the macro super - week, subsequent economic data still need continuous attention, and the fundamental driving force is limited. The price of American cotton is under pressure, and the probability of an interest - rate cut in September is about 80%. Overall, the price of American cotton is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and if there are unexpected disturbances, the center of gravity may rise slightly [11]. Domestic Market - The driving logic has changed rapidly, and there is not much contradiction between supply and demand in the new domestic cotton year. The 09 contract of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly weakly, and the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and strongly in the long - term [12].
棉花策略月报-20250804
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-08-04 09:08