铁合金策略月报-20250804

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For manganese silicon, "anti - involution" was the main driver but has gradually cooled, with limited marginal changes in fundamentals. The market sentiment has returned to rationality, and it is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. The impact of "anti - involution" on supply and demand needs time to verify [6][7]. - For ferrosilicon, the "anti - involution" drive has come to an end, and the fundamental drive is limited. It is expected that the production in August will continue to rise, and the price will mainly fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to policy implementation and cost changes [9][10]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price and Basis Analysis - Futures Price: In July 2025, the prices of both manganese silicon and ferrosilicon had large fluctuations and strengthened month - on - month. The closing price of the manganese silicon main contract increased by 338 yuan/ton, a rise of 6.01%, and the ferrosilicon increased by 412 yuan/ton, a rise of 7.82% [11]. - Spot Price: The increase in the ferrosilicon spot price was greater than that of manganese silicon. The spot prices in different regions of both showed an upward trend [12][14]. - Basis: The basis of both manganese silicon and ferrosilicon fluctuated and strengthened. The weekly basis of manganese silicon increased by 462 - 472 yuan/ton, and that of ferrosilicon increased by 466 - 484 yuan/ton [17][19]. - Near - far Spread: The 9 - 1 spreads of both manganese silicon and ferrosilicon decreased slightly month - on - month, with a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [22][25]. - Double - silicon Spread: The double - silicon spread (ferrosilicon - manganese silicon) increased by 74 yuan/ton month - on - month [29]. 2. Manganese Silicon Analysis - Supply: In July, the weekly output of manganese silicon increased continuously, approaching the level of the same period last year. The production enterprise's operating rate in each region increased to varying degrees. The total output in July was about 892,700 tons, an increase of 56,900 tons compared with June [6][35]. - Demand: The weekly value of manganese silicon demand decreased continuously, at a low level in recent years. The crude steel output decreased significantly, and the steel mill's stocking willingness was limited. The manganese silicon demand of sample steel mills decreased by 2.42% month - on - month [41][45]. - Cost: The manganese ore shipping volume increased, the inventory gradually accumulated, and the price increased month - on - month. The production cost of manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia increased by about 200 yuan/ton to around 5,900 yuan/ton [7]. - Inventory: The inventory of 63 sample enterprises decreased month - on - month, but increased year - on - year. The inventory decreased by 52,300 tons from July 18 to August 1 [59][61]. - Option: The historical volatility of manganese silicon options increased significantly [66]. 3. Ferrosilicon Analysis - Supply: The weekly output of ferrosilicon increased continuously. In July, the national output was 447,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.88%. Some factories in Qinghai and Ningxia plan to increase production in August [9][71][78]. - Demand: The demand for steel products did not increase significantly, and the steel mill's stocking willingness was limited. The weekly value of ferrosilicon demand was at a low level, and the apparent consumption increased by 2.07% month - on - month [9][83]. - Cost: The price of small - sized semi - coke first decreased and then increased. The production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia decreased to varying degrees in July [9][88]. - Inventory: The inventory of ferrosilicon sample enterprises increased slightly month - on - month and remained at a high level in recent years. The inventory available days decreased month - on - month and remained at a low level in recent years [9][92][96]. - Option: The historical volatility of ferrosilicon options reached a new high recently, and the put - call ratio of option positions decreased month - on - month [101][102].