美元债双周报（25年第31周）：美国非农数据走弱，年内降息预期抬升-20250804

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the US dollar bond market is "Underperform" [1] - The investment rating for the US stock market is "Underperform - Maintained" [5] Core Viewpoints - The US non - farm data is weak, and the expectation of an interest rate cut within the year has increased. The Fed's internal disagreement on interest rate cuts has intensified, and the US economic outlook is not optimistic due to factors such as insufficient domestic demand, low corporate investment willingness, and trade policy uncertainties [1][2] - In the context of increasing divergence in Fed policies, differentiated economic data, and falling interest rates, the short - term risk - aversion sentiment in the US bond market has increased. It is recommended that investors maintain medium - and short - duration US dollar bonds as the core allocation [4] Summary by Directory US Treasury Benchmark Interest Rates - The report presents figures related to 2 - year and 10 - year US Treasury yields, the yield curve, bid - to - cover ratios for various maturities, issuance winning bid rates for 2 - 30 year US Treasuries, monthly issuance amounts, and the implied number of interest rate cuts in the federal funds rate futures market [14][22][24] US Macroeconomic and Liquidity - The US GDP grew by 3% year - on - year in Q2, but there are hidden dangers. Private consumption growth was only 0.98%, corporate investment showed negative growth, net exports were mainly due to reduced imports, government contribution was almost zero, and inflation pressure persisted [2] - The July non - farm employment data was far lower than expected, with new employment dropping to 73,000, the lowest in 9 months, and the previous values were significantly revised down by 258,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, the labor participation rate dropped to 62.2%, and the year - on - year hourly wage increase rose to 3.9% [3] Exchange Rates - The report shows figures on the one - year trend of non - US currencies, the two - week changes in non - US currencies, the Sino - US sovereign bond spread, the relationship between the US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury yield, the relationship between the US dollar index and the RMB index, and the one - year locked - in exchange cost change of the US dollar against the RMB [60][62][64] Overseas US Dollar Bonds - Figures on the price trends of US dollar bonds, US - EU comprehensive US dollar bonds, global investment - grade US dollar bonds, and the price trends of global high - yield US dollar bonds and Chinese domestic bonds are presented, as well as the two - week return comparison of the global bond market [67][71][73] Chinese - Issued US Dollar Bonds - The report shows the return trends of Chinese - issued US dollar bonds since 2023 (by grade and industry), the yield and spread trends of investment - grade and high - yield Chinese - issued US dollar bonds, the two - week returns (by grade and industry), the net financing amount trend, and the maturity scale of each sector [90][84][91] Rating Actions - In the past two weeks, the three major international rating agencies took 8 rating actions on Chinese - issued US dollar bond issuers, including 2 downgrades, 3 rating revocations, and 3 initial ratings [93]