Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-04 09:47Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The supply of zinc is growing faster as zinc mine imports increase, processing fees rise, smelter profits improve, new production capacities are released, and previously shut - down capacities resume production. The import loss is widening, leading to a decline in imported zinc. On the demand side, it is the off - season, with a year - on - year drop in the开工率 of processing enterprises. Recently, zinc prices have fallen, downstream buyers purchase on - demand at low prices, and domestic social inventory accumulation has slowed down while the spot premium has slightly rebounded. Overseas, LME inventory has decreased significantly and the spot premium has been lowered. Technically, with reduced positions and price corrections, both long and short sides are cautious, and the price has broken below the MA60 support. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract is 22,255 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the 08 - 09 month contract spread is 5 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan - The LME three - month zinc quote is 2,729.5 dollars/ton, down 32.5 dollars - The total position of Shanghai Zinc is 211,200 lots, down 3,382 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc is - 1,862 lots, down 1,646 lots - Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipts are 14,907 tons, down 75 tons; SHFE inventory is 61,724 tons, up 2,305 tons; LME inventory is 100,825 tons, down 3,975 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on SMM is 22,170 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous market is 21,890 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan - The basis of the ZN main contract is - 85 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the LME zinc cash - 3 months spread is - 10.96 dollars/ton, down 4.4 dollars - The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,040 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% broken zinc in Shanghai is 15,800 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - WBMS: The monthly zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; ILZSG: The monthly zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons - ILZSG: The monthly global zinc mine output is 1,007,500 tons, down 4,300 tons; the monthly domestic refined zinc output is 628,000 tons, up 45,000 tons - The monthly zinc mine import volume is 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3] 3.4产业情况 - The monthly refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; the monthly refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons - The weekly zinc social inventory is 84,300 tons, up 800 tons [3] 3.5下游情况 - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons - The monthly new housing construction area is 303.6432 million square meters, up 71.8071 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 225.6661 million square meters, up 41.8147 million square meters - The monthly automobile output is 2.8086 million vehicles, up 166,600 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner output is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3] 3.6期权市场 - The implied volatility of at - the - money zinc call options is 13.8%, down 1.17 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money zinc put options is 13.8%, down 1.2 percentage points - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 9.41%, down 0.76 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 14.08%, up 0.01 percentage points [3] 3.7行业消息 - In the US, the non - farm payrolls added 73,000 in July, far lower than expected, and the data of the previous two months was revised down by 258,000. The "New Fed Wire" said that the cooling of non - farm employment opens the door for a September rate cut despite concerns about inflation - Starting from August 8, 2025, China will resume levying value - added tax on the interest income of newly issued national bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds [3]