瑞达期货不锈钢产业日报-20250804

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The raw material cost support for stainless steel has weakened due to the significant decline in ferronickel prices recently, despite the increased cost of nickel resources from the Indonesian government's PNBP policy and the accelerated release of Indonesian ferronickel production [2]. - On the supply side, steel mills are facing increased cost - inversion pressure and are in a loss state across the board, leading to greater production cuts. Domestic anti - involution measures may also help alleviate the oversupply situation, and stainless steel production is expected to decline further [2]. - On the demand side, it is the traditional consumption off - season, with increased macro - market uncertainties and pressure on export demand. Downstream buyers are hesitant and less willing to accept high - priced goods, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand [2]. - Domestic stainless steel inventory has entered the destocking cycle, and the decline in inventory has accelerated with continuous production cuts [2]. - Technically, the position volume has decreased, and both bulls and bears are cautious. Attention should be paid to the support level at 12,800. It is recommended to wait and see or take a small long position [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract is 12,925 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 85 yuan/ton. The price difference between the 08 - 09 contracts is 35 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 24,777 lots, a decrease of 1,719 lots. The main contract position volume is 87,475 lots, a decrease of 1,864 lots [2]. - The stainless steel warehouse receipt quantity is 102,925 tons, a decrease of 61 tons [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The price of 304/2B rolled stainless steel (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of the SS main contract is 245 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly ferronickel production is 22,600 metal tons, a decrease of 1,300 metal tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,215.27 tons, a decrease of 472.3 tons. The monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0414 million tons, an increase of 193,200 tons [2]. - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 121,250 yuan/ton, an increase of 600 yuan/ton. The average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 910 yuan/nickel point, unchanged [2]. - The monthly Chinese ferrochrome production is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. 3.4产业情况 - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.744 million tons, a decrease of 40,700 tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 608,000 tons, an increase of 2,300 tons [2]. - The monthly stainless steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. 3.5下游情况 - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 303.6432 million square meters, an increase of 71.8071 million square meters [2]. - The monthly output of excavators is 26,800 units, an increase of 1,000 units. The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 21,700 units, a decrease of 2,900 units. The monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, a decrease of 1,000 units [2]. 3.6行业消息 - In the US, the non - farm payrolls added 73,000 jobs in July, far lower than expected, and the data of the previous two months was revised down by 258,000. The "New Fed Wire" said that the cooling of non - farm employment opens the door for a rate cut in September, although inflation remains a concern [2]. - Starting from August 8, 2025, the interest income from newly issued treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to value - added tax [2]. - On the raw material side, the Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts the release of resources, increasing the cost of nickel supply. However, the production of Indonesian ferronickel has rebounded significantly [2].