瑞达期货沪镍产业日报-20250804

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report indicates that the current nickel market shows a trend of weak supply and demand. The domestic social inventory is increasing, while the overseas LME inventory is decreasing and the cancelled warrants are rising. Technically, with rising positions and falling prices, the bearish sentiment is strong. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 120,630 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 860 yuan/ton; the 08 - 09 contract spread of Shanghai nickel is - 140 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 160 yuan/ton [3]. - The LME 3 - month nickel price is 15,020 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 70 US dollars/ton; the position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 95,467 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,413 lots [3]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 22,968 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 5,047 lots; the LME nickel inventory is 209,082 tons, with no change [3]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory is 25,750 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 299 tons; the LME nickel cancelled warrants total 12,312 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2,178 tons [3]. - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 21,170 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 204 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 121,250 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 600 yuan/ton; the spot average price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals is 121,250 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 500 yuan/ton [3]. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, with no change; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, with no change [3]. - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,900 yuan/ton, with no change; the basis of the NI main contract is 620 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 260 yuan/ton [3]. - The LME nickel (spot/3 - month) premium is - 192.79 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 7.41 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 434.66 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 41.94 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 994.36 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 6.49 million tons [3]. - The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 65.84 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 7.57 US dollars/ton; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, with no change [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel output is 22,600 metal tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,300 metal tons [3]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,215.27 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 472.3 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0414 billion tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.1932 billion tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.744 billion tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 40,700 tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 608,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2,300 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - In July in the US, the non - farm payrolls increased by 73,000, far lower than expected, and the data of the previous two months was revised down by 258,000. The "New Fed Wire" said that the cooling of non - farm employment opens the door for a rate cut in September, although inflation is still a concern [3]. - On August 1, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced that starting from August 8, 2025, the value - added tax on the interest income of newly issued national bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds after this date (inclusive) will be restored [3].