瑞达期货塑料产业日报-20250804

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The L2509 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with attention on the support around 7,200 yuan/ton. The supply is increasing as previously shut - down plants restarted, and new production capacity is planned to be put into operation in the medium - to - long term. Demand is weak, with the peak season for shed films postponed and limited support from packaging film orders. International oil prices are expected to be strong this week, but cost support is not enough to reverse the short - term weak trend of polyethylene futures [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main polyethylene futures contract was 7,279 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan. The trading volume was 264,758 lots, up 44,222 lots, and the open interest was 300,262 lots, down 12,855 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 22,004 lots, up 316 lots [2] Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 7,284.35 yuan/ton, down 32.61 yuan, and in East China was 7,367.62 yuan/ton, down 17.86 yuan. The basis was 5.35 yuan, up 5.39 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore was 64.88 US dollars per barrel, down 0.66 US dollars, and the CFR mid - price in Japan was 603.88 US dollars per ton, down 7.12 US dollars. The mid - price of ethylene CFR in Southeast Asia was 831 US dollars per ton, unchanged, and in Northeast Asia was 821 US dollars per ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The national petrochemical PE operating rate was 81.09%, up 2.12 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene packaging film was 48.7%, up 0.63 percentage points, that of pipes was 28.67%, down 0.16 percentage points, and that of agricultural film was 12.63%, unchanged [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 12.42%, up 0.15 percentage points, and the 40 - day historical volatility was 13.36%, up 0.13 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put and call options was 7.28%, down 0.91 percentage points [2] Industry News - From July 25th to 31st, China's polyethylene production was 635,500 tons, up 3.31% from the previous period. The average operating rate of downstream polyethylene products increased by 0.3%. As of July 30th, the inventory of polyethylene production enterprises was 432,800 tons, down 13.94%, and as of August 2nd, the social inventory was 575,700 tons, up 2.49% [2]