瑞达期货铁矿石产业链日报-20250804

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report On Monday, the I2509 contract fluctuated with a slight upward trend. Macroscopically, the number of non - farm payrolls in the US in July hit a 9 - month low. After the release of non - farm data, former US President Trump criticized Powell again and called for a rate cut. In terms of supply and demand, the shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil decreased this period, while the arrival volume increased, and the domestic port inventory declined. The molten iron output decreased slightly but remained above 2.4 million tons. Overall, iron ore still has demand support, and the market is shifting from sentiment - driven to reality - testing, with the market likely to enter a range - bound consolidation. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2509 contract shows that DIFF and DEA rebounded from a low level. Operationally, short - term trading is recommended, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - I main contract closing price was 790.50 yuan/ton, up 7.50 yuan; I main contract position was 402,645 lots, down 7,364 lots [2] - I 9 - 1 contract spread was 24.5 yuan/ton, down 1.50 yuan; I contract's top 20 net position was - 19,361 lots, up 1,151 lots [2] - I Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts were 3,600 lots, unchanged; Singapore iron ore main contract quoted 101.35 US dollars/ton at 15:00, up 1.35 US dollars [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB powder ore was 835 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan; Qingdao Port 60.8% Mac fine ore was 823 yuan/dry ton, down 1 yuan [2] - Jingtang Port 56.5% Super Special fine ore was 717 yuan/dry ton, unchanged; I main contract basis was 32 yuan, down 9 yuan [2] - Iron ore 62% Platts Index (previous day) was 99.30 US dollars/ton, up 0.25 US dollars; Jiangsu scrap steel/Qingdao Port 60.8% Mac fine ore ratio was 3.35, down 0.06 [2] - Estimated import cost was 816 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - Global iron ore shipment volume (weekly) was 3,061.80 million tons, down 139.10 million tons; China's 47 - port arrival volume (weekly) was 2,622.40 million tons, up 302.70 million tons [2] - 47 - port iron ore inventory (weekly) was 14,222.01 million tons, down 173.67 million tons; Sample steel mills' iron ore inventory (weekly) was 9,012.09 million tons, up 126.87 million tons [2] - Iron ore import volume (monthly) was 10,595.00 million tons, up 782.00 million tons; Iron ore available days (weekly) were 24 days, up 1 day [2] - 266 mines' daily output (weekly) was 39.09 million tons, down 2.01 million tons; 266 mines' operating rate (weekly) was 62.32%, down 2.36% [2] - 266 mines' iron concentrate inventory (weekly) was 38.00 million tons, down 2.90 million tons; BDI index was 2,018.00, up 15.00 [2] - Iron ore freight rate: Tubarao, Brazil - Qingdao was 24.01 US dollars/ton, up 0.55 US dollars; West Australia - Qingdao was 10.37 US dollars/ton, up 0.40 US dollars [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate (weekly) was 83.48%, unchanged; 247 steel mills' blast furnace capacity utilization rate (weekly) was 90.22%, down 0.56% [2] - Domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 8,318 million tons, down 336 million tons [2] 3.5 Option Market - Underlying historical 20 - day volatility (daily) was 22.38%, up 0.01%; Underlying historical 40 - day volatility (daily) was 18.05%, down 0.06% [2] - At - the - money call option implied volatility (daily) was 19.78%, up 0.25%; At - the - money put option implied volatility (daily) was 20.77%, up 1.09% [2] 3.6 Industry News - From July 28 to August 3, 2025, China's 47 - port arrival volume was 2,622.4 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 302.7 million tons; 45 - port arrival volume was 2,507.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 267.3 million tons; Northern six - port arrival volume was 1,253.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 95.8 million tons [2] - From July 28 to August 3, 2025, Mysteel's global iron ore shipment volume was 3,061.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 139.1 million tons. The total shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 2,532.2 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 223.7 million tons. Australia's shipment volume was 1,780.2 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 79.4 million tons, of which the volume shipped to China was 1,547.4 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.0 million tons. Brazil's shipment volume was 752.0 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 144.4 million tons [2]